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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
China industrial profit in Q1 2019 (Jan +Feb + March): -3.3% YoY Ytd according to NBS %YoY but if you take the level provided by NBS & calculate %YoY ytd then it is -16.5% for Q1.

Chart 👇🏻(divergence w/ level & YoY started in 2016) 🤔
If industrial profit falls -3.3% (or -16.5%), wut does that mean about the rise of industrial production? Does that imply that the drivers of Q1 2019 GDP are not profitable? This makes sense as we know that FAI by POEs declined while SOEs rose & POEs return on asset much higher🤔
By details Q1 industrial profits, everyone is down 😬except:

Coal mining; petroleum & natural gas; food manufacturing; beverage manufacturing; electricity & waste.

Petroleum processing was worst -57% in Q1 2019.
Btw, since China's Q1 GDP (& retail sales + industrial production beat) on 17 April, SHCOMP has declined about 6% as people fear that the liquidity injection we got (9% of GDP) in Q1 2019 is now tempered by both "strong" data & also higher oil & pork CPI.

Good news = bad news 😬
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
China activities weaker in Q2 2019 👇🏻:

April official manufacturing PMI declined 📉to 50.1 from 50.5 (exp 50.5); services down📉 to 54.3 from 54.8 (exp 54.9)

Caixin out in 45 mins. Btw, we knew this from the bad sub-component of Q1 GDP, esp if u look at POE investment 😬
👇🏻Details for manu PMI (this matters b/c 🇨🇳 dominates global manu - 1/5 manu comes from China):

a) Output 📉
b) New orders📉
c) Inventories 📉
d) Employment further contraction to 47.2 from 47.6📉

Silver lining, seems like new export orders bottoming but still contracting ...😬
Input prices are elevated but rate of increase is slowing so that is not good if costs high & revenue & orders 📉📉

Don't forget that this is the OFFICIAL number so they are saying that policy tightening not happening & defo stabilization of activity but an L-shaped recovery🇨🇳😬
Read 6 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Off the chart 👇🏻

Retail sales rose 8.7% 📈📈YoY from (exps 8.4% YoY); FAI rose📈 6.3% from 6.1% ; IP rose 📈📈8.5% from 5.9% (exp 5.6%)

Q1 GDP rose📈 6.4% YoY (exps 6.3% from 6.4% in Q4)

So retail rocked it. Question, why are imports contracting further? 🤔🤔🤔
In Q1 2019 in China:

a) Fiscal spending rose 📈15%YoY & total financing rose 📈40% YoY in flow &📈 10.7% in stock;

b) Retail sales rose📈 8.7% in March & IP just did a huge upturn to 📈8.5%;

c) GDP rose 📈6.4%

d) Imports contracted 📉-4.4% YoY & exports rose only 0.5% YoY📉
As an FYI, this is all you will get for the details of China quarterly GDP break-down. Literally. For the second largest economy in the world 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻:

a) No expenditure breakdown
b) Only 3 sectors (primary (commodity, secondary (industrial), third (services);

True story 👌🏻
Read 11 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Remember China March trade, esp imports contracting further? Want to see wut it looks like per country breakdown?

It's ugly. Everyone is seeing Chinese demand slowing, even France😬. Red everywhere. Even stellar Australian exports slowing.
So that was March. Want to see it on a quarterly basis (as in Q1 trade figures). Pay attention to the country breakdown of imports (total -4.4% YoY in Q1 2019 in USD). Also as u read this, remember that China threw 9% of GDP into the eco in Q1 2019 & import contraction deepens😬
Updated of by-country w/ Germany included (not looking good but we knew that from German manufacturing PMI declining)
Read 3 tweets

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