Thread by @kazweida

While polls reflect dismal approval ratings, the public (and Democrats) haven't started impeachment hearings despite the evidence against Trump

As a former behavioral therapist, I want to introduce a concept that applies here
Cognitive dissonance
(THREAD)
fivethirtyeight.com/features/even-…

(2) When it comes to our current hyper-partisan environment, I think viewing changing public opinion through the lens of behavioral science makes sense. These aren't just opinions. These are closely held values and belief systems that people feel genuinely define them.

(3) When we talk about shifting deeply held belief systems, the discussion turns to the idea of cognitive dissonance. It's the concept that when faced with information that causes friction to the infallibility of our beliefs, we make 1 of 2 choices.

thedailystar.net/shout/life/new…

(4) Either we invest in theories that shore up our beliefs, however fantastic (see QAnon), or we come to terms with the idea that what we believe isn't true. This process doesn't happen overnight. It takes repeated exposure to cognitive dissonance to make behavioral change occur.

(5) Today people can almost entirely eliminate the friction of cognitive dissonance by choosing to stay in their insulated social media bubbles. We are harder to reach than ever. But that doesn't mean behavioral change isn't possible.

(6) We don't need to sympathize with folks who are evading facts. But we do need to penetrate and saturate their world to make cognitive dissonance occur. This is why people keep talking about the Watergate hearings when we discuss impeaching Trump.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-m…

(7) It's true that there wasn't initially support for impeachment. But the hearings in the Senate changed that. People's personal and political worlds became saturated with dissonance they couldn't rectify.

Nixon began 1973 with a 68% approval rating.
Then the scandal broke.

(8) Even coupled with economic woes, Watergate wasn't enough to knock Nixon down to size. And it didn't shake his base or even the moderates.

The hearings did that. Slowly and over time.
71% of Americans watched those hearings televised live.
smithsonianmag.com/history/how-wa…

(9) As the details of the crimes of the administration were exposed daily to the living rooms of everyday Americans, Nixon's approval rating finally bottomed out at 31%. It took a few months but it eroded every last bit of support he had.
Cognitive dissonance took its toll.

(10) People couldn't rectify what they knew about Nixon with their firmly held beliefs. There had been too much friction. Their minds could no longer fabricate elaborate excuses to avoid the dissonance.

Dems shouldn't rely on polls to determine public support for impeachment.

(11) The hearings are a path to impeachment, but they need to be part of a public campaign to reach Americans in their partisan bubbles and expose them to the dissonance. It will be ugly at first. They will get defensive.
But eventually, change will happen.