Thread by @NicSaldias

Eagerly awaiting the presentation by @Kicillofok at the @TheWilsonCenter hosted by the @ArgentinaProj & @benjamingedan

And so the event begins with comments by @benjamingedan, placing into context the Argentine crisis and upcoming elections.

Kicillof tells the audience that he wants to help the government, and wants to help avoid a deeper crisis. But he notes that #Macri tried to avoid responsibility for the crisis and Macri misled voters with his campaign of hope in 2015.

Kicillof opinion is, as a economist and representative, is that Macri's austerity & neoliberal program (un programa genérico) doesn't work and never worked in Argentina leading to debt crisis and social exclusion. Further, its not a good fit for the new geopolitical context

Kicillof argues that CFK left Macri in a country with growth and without a crisis. Today, Argentina suffers greatly from international shifts due to Macri's economic program. And Argentina, under Macri, Is swimming against the new mercantilism of the global system.

Kicillof argues that Macri expected, unreasonably, that growth would come from exports and investment. Instead, the main motor of the economy is internal demand, which has fallen with declining real wages.

Kicillof argues that Macri blamed the previous government for the pesada herencia and is now blaming the next government for the current crisis.

Kicillof argues that the full responsibility for what happens in the economy until December is Macri's and the IMF. Noting that there have been 4 renegotiations of terms, showing a failing program.

He calls the central bank's monetary policy "tasa de destruction industrial."

Noting the INDEC intervention, he says that he is using the government's own data (inflation data from the city of BsAs) not CFK's own data.

Kicillof argues that Macri had been changing the methodology behind the calculation for the deficit to make the days look better for the government. He also notes that after Macri the country will have 4 pct of GDP going to interest payments, or 16 pct of total gvts expenditure

Kicillof notes CFK left a country with little debt. But, he doesn't explain how the government financed it's deficit at the time without access to credit markets.

Using Macri's new methodology for poverty data, Kicillof shows the large decline in poverty from 2003-15. He notes that under Macri poverty increased by 8 precent.

NB, poverty increased after the devaluation if 2014 and seesawed since then.

Kicillof shows the very large increase in debt under Macri. Why did Macri do it? "Adónde fue la plata?" He argues that the govt wasn't being honest about gradualismo, but the debt was taken out to subsidize capital flight w/ 58 pct went to this end.

Kicillof shows that the next government will have it's own pesada herencia with the debt hangover.

Kicillof argues that a problem with Macri is the lack of previsibilidad, with u-turns in policy. Surprisingly, especially for a opposition figure, his suggestion to the government is to pick a course and to stick to it.

Kicillof argues that it's not fair to ask what he would do in this context, because the situation could be catastrophic when the new government comes into office. Acknowledging, he doesn't know yet what'd he'd do, apart from "cambiar las prioridades"

On the IMF loan: "no es un préstamo a un país, pero un préstamo a un gobierno."

Kicillof argues that corruption is a priority, but notes that polls show that a majority of Argentines distrust the judicial branch. Also noting that there appears to be a effort to target certain leaders, e.g. Lula. And he's "preocupado por el estado de derecho" in Argentina.

Kicillof on #Venezuela, arguing that he favors the position taken by Mexico and Uruguay. Against dictatorship and foreign intervention.

Kicillof argues, "nuestro gobierno puso en marcha Vaca Muerta."

Kicillof notes that unlike Macri, his political party has a greater interest in regional integration. Instead, he argues that Macri Is uninterested in regional integration.

This, of course, raises the question of the likely problematic relationship with Bolsonaro and CFK.

"la sociedad Argentina necesita pensar"

On a pessimistic note, Kicillof argues that when the IMF comes to "salvar" Argentina, "siempre termina mal"