Thread by @JohnTughan

A thread about the Northern Irish border. Because I have been asked to. Might not be short. From the persepctive of someone who grew up there. And because I take for granted that people know this stuff and that is my fault and I am sorry. 1

When talking about Northern Ireland significant numbers of people there and from there immediately categorise you as Catholic or Prod based on the language you use. So a declaration so as to save you the time. I am neither. 2

I was brought up in the British tradition and to believe that no one should be hated for the fact that they were brought up in a different tradition (in 1970s Belfast that makes me profoundly lucky and eternally grateful to my tolerant parents). 3

I was born as the troubles started and moved to mainland UK (to University and then permanently) by 1990 towards their end. Even my use of the word "troubles" will categorise me for many. 4

The desire to categorise people was and is all pervasive but getting better. It is fundamental to the divided society over there and is done (I think) for a number of reasons including that if someone is recognisably from the other camp their views can be dismissed. 5

For those interested in the attitudes and splits in that society I would recommend "May the Lord in His Mercy be kind to Belfast" by Tony Parker. 6

My point for this thread is that those splits and divisions remain as all-present today as they were in the 1970s. Now, they are just a bit more under the surface. It is getting better, slowly. 7

The other thing to realise is that both extreme camps remain armed over there. That is not a controversial statement. 8

So it was baffling and infuriating to be told that the Northern Irish border issues were made up or part of Project Fear or part of a negotiating tactic. I thought this was lunatic fundamentalist politicians and then was told that the majority agreed (June 2016) 9

Lives turn on the issue of the border. Lives will be lost on the re-imposition of border structures. Here is why. 10

The active Republican terrorists put down their weapons because of the Good Friday agreement ("GFA"). They still retain those weapons. 11

The border is hated by the Republican side. It is the partitioning of Ireland. The compromise in the GFA (and part of its brilliance) was that we would make the border go away until demographics took over and the majority were ready to vote for a United Ireland. 12

Another major strand of the GFA was the involvement of supra-national institutions in the form of the EU. 13

Put as simply as I can, if those who put down their weapons think the border is returning they will pick those weapons back up. Because the agreement has been reneged on and the reason for their stopping killing people has ended. 14

That is so obvious to those of us who are from there that it did not need stating. Except it did need stating. And does. 15

Another terrifying component in all this is that the Republican military splintered at the time of the GFA. Not everyone agreed that peace was the correct option and the "Real IRA" was born. They might be now called "New IRA" or that might be yet another group. I am not sure. 16

Real IRA (or is it New IRA?) are said to be responsible for the death of Lyra McKee recently. They have said that Brexit has highlighted how the island of Ireland is still partitioned and they would be stupid not to take advantage of the recruiting opportunity it presents. 17

The extreme side of the British-tradition are just as armed and entrenched as the Republican side. Any slight or disrespect leads to immediate sabre-rattling and threats 18

Politics can and does seize up/stop while issues such as which flag can be flown where are debated. Or where are we allowed to march. And that is progress. Because it is debate not violence. Whch is thanks to the GFA. 19

Electoral success goes to the extremes. The DUP is not the Official Unionist Party (David Trimble as leader during the GFA). Sinn Fein is not the SDLP (John Hume as leader during the GFA). The DUP and Sinn Fein share seats almost equally. 20

What this all adds up to is a precarious balance and a delicate peace. A peace that has to be fought for again and again. And again. 21

One of the shocking things about Brexit is the attitude of the mainland Leave politicians to all this. This delicate and continuing peace process can just be jettisoned so as to achieve Brexit. It is not Project Fear to say lives will be lost becasue of this attitude. 22

The rhetoric from Westminster has already ratcheted up the tension and the aspirations of extremists (see above re Real/New IRA's comments on Brexit). 23

Mainland Leave politicians should be ashamed of themselves for this. All of them but a special shout out goes to @KateHoeyMP who has no excuse for not knowing better (born and educated in the excellent grammar school system over there). 24

Brexiters say the border is a non issue because no-one wants it. What they will not tell you is that under WTO (No Deal) rules there has to be a border so that the EU can continue to demonstrate to the WTO that it is a free trade area. 25

To be continued - I have reached the thread limit apparently.

So when a No Deal Brexit happens there will be infrastructure at the Border. This is becasue there is no technological soluton to the necessary checks. 26

When border infrastructure is put in place the basis for the Republican cessation of hostilities disappears. The hated border is back. 27

What is that infrastrutcure? Not sure. Based on history it is probably an official with a peaked cap. AKA a target. That target will need to be guarded. And so the militarisation of the border occurs. And it is as if the GFA does not exist. 28

The GFA is a massive success story and a model for conflict zones around the world. A large part of that success (but by no means all) is down to the British politicians. As a country the UK should be proud of this achievement and shouting it from the rooftops. 29

The UK entered the GFA willingly and with delight. To now be told it is a device to thwart Brexit is just another of those breathtaking Brexit lies and is also more ratcheting up the dangerous rhetoric since armed men think they have given something serious up for the GFA 30

I believe Brexit has brought a United Ireland closer. For some that statement will cause an emotional reaction and turmoil. A United Ireland is a detested and feared outcome. But the GFA rightly bases the outcome on the democratic principle 31

It has brought it closer because moderate Brits in Northern Ireland will see that the choice is between Little England with Rees-Mogg and others or forward looking international EU. 32

Given the already very close demographics on a referendum on a United Ireland that might be enough to tip the balance already. 33

Personally, that outcome does not fill me with fear or dread. If it is the will of the majority and is done peacefully so be it. But for others (some armed and dangerous) it is dreadful. 34

The point though is that Brexit really does involve a fraturing of the Union for the above reasons. Add in Scotland to the mix and Brexit might be the end of our country as we know it. 35

The only thing that is good about the Theresa May withdrawal deal is the backstop. It is a cast-iron guarantee that preserves the GFA and the peace. It has to be cast-iron and a guarantee not an aspiration that can be jettisoned when it suits the Kate Hoeys of this world 36

The Northern Irish border issue is not why I hate Brexit. There are many reasons. But it is the scariest reason. It is the issue without a solution. It is also Brexit in a microcosm. I wish it was a metaphor too but it is not. It is real. 37

Sorry this has been so long. I hope it has been of some use. Ends.

I should clarify. The backstop is good from the sole perspective of Ireland and the GFA. But the withdrawal agreement as a whole really is the largest loss of sovereignty ever contemplated and not involving a war (36 1/2)