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Based on comparing tactics and shrapnel from Yemen, investigators say highly likely that the IRGC is behind recent attacks on oil tankers. In a war against the US, IRGC is likely to "use asymmetric methods" while maintaining "plausible deniability".
The Iranian regime in the past has made it clear that in the event of a large scale conventional war with the US, they will attack US allied Gulf states, disrupt oil exports, and attempt to block the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz.
A third of the world's liquefied natural gas exports and a fifth of the world's crude oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so any disruption would have global ramifications.
A large scale war would also risk spillage into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Gaza, as well as further escalation in Yemen. It would be a Middle Eastern World War.
