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European Parliamentary elections take place in 28 (arguably 27+1 given the unique UK dynamics) countries. It's worth having a look at polls in *all* member states before lazy "populist surge" takes politico.eu/2019-european-…
A few thoughts:
A few thoughts:
- Some nationalist parties will do extremely well, while others who barely existed in 2014 will win seats. But, elsewhere, several important nationalist parties haven't moved since 2014, or indeed have seen their support stagnate or fall over the past 5 years
- Polarisation and fragmentation are a more accurate lens through which to read European politics. Nationalism is one end of the spectrum – an important consequential characteristic that isn't going away, sure, but not a 2019 novelty
- How to measure the success of Salvini's alliance?
1. Lega is polling exceptionally well. But the rest of the bloc is mostly a three card exercise rearranging chairs around existing far-right and nationalist friends, groups and faces – is the net result that different to 2014?
1. Lega is polling exceptionally well. But the rest of the bloc is mostly a three card exercise rearranging chairs around existing far-right and nationalist friends, groups and faces – is the net result that different to 2014?
2. Salvini is trying to unite the far-right with likes of Orbán & Kaczyński. On current polling numbers, if that partnership doesn't happen, his attempt at building an influential alliance will partly fail. It's a bit like his football club – Europa League isn't Champions League
