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How to stop no deal? I did a little thread on the challenges for those who want to stop no deal about a week ago. This is a closer look at the range of options.
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Whatever solution is preferred, it will only succeed in stopping no deal if it secures majority support in Parliament - ie a united 'remain' movement, a lot of Labour MPs, and a number of Tories too. 2/
One option is to pass the existing WA and (vague) PD. Theresa May failed to do this; perhaps a different leader (like a Rory Stewart) could? It looks a very tall order. 3/
A second is to pass a different deal. Any such deal must command majority support in Parliament *and* be agreed with the EU (before October). The EU are clear that the WA will not be reopened, but that the PD might be. 4/
So, the chances of a plan resting on 'ditching the backstop' and delivering an FTA-type Brexit are approximately zero. 5/
A softer Brexit (ie the WA plus a strong commitment in the PD to the customs union and perhaps the single market) might well be negotiable with the EU. But would it have any chance of passing through Parliament? Again, it looks like a very tall order. 6/
So... any deal - be it the WA, a harder Brexit, or a softer Brexit, looks very difficult to reach. If we fail to find a new compromise, we move closer to 'no deal'. 7/
What then are the alternatives? I think that there are four. A further extension (without a people's vote or general election); a PV; revoking A50; and a GE. 8/
An extension relies on the agreement of the EU-27. As the last months have shown, it is prolonging the agony of Brexit, for the UK and for the EU. For all our sakes, we have to decide. 9/
Any further extension should, and is likely to, come with a strong demand for a plan (ie a PV or a GE), not a vague aspiration that a viable Brexit compromise can be found. 10/
Might a people's vote be the way forward? It seems to be the preferred option for most remainers, but is resisted by the Labour leadership, and almost all Tories. The biggest challenge is in relation to the question. 11/
Remain v what? The WA? The WA and 'no deal'? @GuitarMoog and @Wonkypolicywonk (and others) have written on the difficulties. 12/
This thread was based on a John McDonnell tweet - but in relation to the PV, the questions it asks are relevant to all the remain parties. 13/
What about revoke? I have been trying to make the case for revoke for ages... as a response to the fact that none of the possible Brexit paths forward commands sufficient support (in Parliament and the country). 14/
For me, it is the best way forward, as argued here. But many baulk at the implications for democracy, and it is (I fear) no more likely to secure majority support in this Parliament than an attempt to get any Brexit deal through. 15/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12…
All of which leads me towards thinking that a general election is inevitable. MPs will not allow no deal, will not agree any deal (or any set of PV questions), and will not revoke. 16/
The Tories will do all they can to avoid a GE; but I can't see how they can succeed. The various opposition parties (including Labour) can unite in calling for one; demanding a new popular mandate for their preferred Brexit outcome. 17/
Til recently, a strong argument against a GE was that it would be unlikely to change, or resolve, the arithmetic. There is now little doubt that things would be shaken up. 18/
The various parties seem likely to stand for various 'deals', for 'no deal', and for revoke. The stakes will be very high indeed. I just can't see any other solution emerging. 19/19
