, 15 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Warren is the front-runner. Biden is the guy who’s still smiling because he won’t know he’s cut in half until the top half of his body slides off the bottom half.
"Biden is not a chronic stumble-crumb who has run for president 4 times and face-planted every time," says the knowledgeable realist, feet firmly planted on earth.
*three times* sorry

He's bad at campaigning and he's running on people's fond memories of Obama

But Obama—whether or not he disappointed you—was capable of making people believe he was with you.

Biden's message is "Hi! I'm friends with the people who are hurting you!"
When I say that Warren is the front runner, I'm aware of the polls.

I'm also aware of the narratives building around them.

And I notice how Warren connects with people. She's good at it.

I look forward 9 months and I see a front-runner.

Maybe wishful thinking. We'll see.
In fact I think speaking it into existence is exactly what we can do.

People believe what they hear.

Listen to the narratives.

What are their brands?

Biden is the Safe One
Bernie is the Big Change
Harris is the hard-nosed career pol
Pete stole Beto's 'exciting newcomer' lane
Warren's smart—she's got a plan for that.

Everybody else isn't actually running. Nobody's had the heart to tell them.
Biden's problem is his narrative is the one that's not true, and he's really incapable of disproving it, because he's not good at campaigning.

He's not only failing to energize the base. He's actively trying to cool them down.

When has that worked? Name the time please.
Oh on on this subject there are some candidates who really should be in here (*cough* Castro *cough*) but I think there's only so much oxygen in the room.
Based on what?

Find me what they were saying about a first-term Senator with the name "Barack Obama" in June 2007.

Nobody knows anything.

People who like Warren don't just like her—they love her.

Bernie's got that. Trump's got that, too—it set him apart in a Republican field. I see it a bit with others.

Candidates who people love tend rather than seem to win, don't they.

Ask Bob Dole or Mitt Romney or John Kerry
I think Biden is one of the the candidates *least* likely to beat Trump, because he's courting conservative voters who are highly likely to vote for Trump no matter what.

Sure, they *say* they don't want Trump, but they do. Trump's got 90% approval with Republicans.
The best way to win is to create a scenario where there are no losing options.

So sure, say you'd vote for a centrist Democrat.

Once Biden's running for a weaker version of what you want, you're free to vote for the stronger version of what you want.

You'll find your excuse.
Maybe I'm wrong and this thread will age badly. Maybe Biden will cruise to victory in this thing

I don't think so. He's running out into the desert promising us all that shimmer is an oasis

Meanwhile we've got other candidates right here, where we are. They're drilling wells
He’s going to do something like this every day.

Elizabeth Warren is the front runner.

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