Thread by @BrunoBrussels

Brexit will not happen - with or without a deal - on 31 October: that’s EU’s planning assumption, at the moment

Assessment is new PM will give a serious try to do a new deal - or face political chaos risk record-breaking short term in office

Even if there is no agreement by 31 Oct EU expects “technical extension” to prepare for “controlled no deal” Date would probably be set for end January 2020

EU negotiators do not expect a new PM to begin any formal talks or unveil demands until Tory Party conference

If there is a deal that new PM can out to Commons then EU has been told by UK officials that ratification takes two to three months again meaning a new Brexit day at end of the year or January 2020

Margin for a long extension “exhausted”, as French arguments have gained ground, unless a second referendum or general election has been announced

Summit next week will be Brexit-light - with a brief discussion or on Friday after May has left her last summit
Thurs night dinner is on top jobs - nothing else

New PM is not expected to turn up in Brussels at the end of July - he will build his team and tour European capitals first

The official he appoints to replace Olly Robbins as his negotiator will be critical - will he replace the permanent representative/ambo in Brussels to seal Downing Street control (as before resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers)?

29 September is Tory conference in Manchester, new PM expected to keep his hands free until then
Key date is 17 October EU summit, 15 days after Tory conference

New PM faces immediate crunch point as it will quickly become clear that an extension - albeit "technical" - is more or less inevitable

Officials point out that "controlled no deal" is not jointly managed one. It is for EU to prepares its unilateral measures & for UK to prepare its own. There would be no negotiations in this period - until after no deal Brexit. EU has well known preconditions to then begin talks