Thread by @pmdfoster

Good morning #Brexit wonks. I am off to the @ProsperityUK_ conference on Alternative Arrangements for the Irish Border - this is hunt for solutions by @NickyMorgan01 @GregHands - just read report. HUGE issues. 1/ Quick Thread

@ProsperityUK_ @NickyMorgan01 @GregHands Quick recap: why does this matter? Because if technology can solve the Irish border, then the all the UK can go 'bucaneering' and have independent trade policy outside EU single market and customs union, without leaving Northern Ireland behind.

BUT there's a problem... /2

The UK has committed to 'no new infrastructure' to make the border work and "no related checks and controls"...which makes it very difficult.

Add to this that 'no border' is what makes the Good Friday Agreement work, and local communities DONT WANT a border....

Very tought. /3

One huge area is animal product checks (SPS) which need to be done at/near the border...just read this section from the report.

It is SO full of holes /4

1. It says that UK and Ireland should create common SPS zone based on 'deemed equivalence' with EU rules.

Do we think the EU going to go with that? Do we think Ireland would risk diluting it's position in EU single market?

'Difficult' to negotiate. I'll say. /5

2. It then says that IF the UK diverges after this temporary period (say after signing a trade deal with the US) that Ireland could return to EU fold and Northern Ireland follow "subject to the consent of the Northern Irish people". (Shhh, don't tell the DUP) /6

This also presumes

a) that NI political institutions are up and running

b) that 'Principle of Consent', which applies ONLY to whethern NI is member of Rep of Ireland or UK, could be some kind of referendum tool on SPS issue. Legal precedent says not. /7

Basically, the report concedes that it doesn't have a realworld solution for SPS - so it dances around issue with imaginary legal solutions.

The rest of it is wearingly familiar...

/8

Have a read of this bit...tracking and surveilance etc.

1. You'd need primary legislation to have this level of surveillance, per current data laws. Do we think, given NI politics, that's likely/possible?/9

2. This just glosses over the political reality which is that the communities DO NOT WANT a return to a border - of any kind - they did away with economic/political frictions and don't want them back. That means plenty will be actively seeking NOT to co-operate /10

Which brings you to the question of checks and enforcement...men in peaked caps, with clipboards, showing up at premises all over the border areas - perhaps not that close, Newry customs park was bombed nine miles back from the border - but targets none the less. /11

The report implicitly acknowledges the problems by going back to huge exemptions for the border - recall MaxFax and 80% exemptions? This proposal is for a border Special Economic Zone. I fear Derry has enough walls already. /12

The twin sponsors @NickyMorgan01 and @GregHands say all this can be made to work in 2-3 eyars with “goodwill and pragmatism shown by all parties” - which I think "everyone puts their interests asides and does what we say to help deliver #Brexit" I fear they are not so minded. /13

@NickyMorgan01 @GregHands And this is the issue here - deliverable realities. Stuff that works, in the real political context, where it is supposed to work....the hard choices remain.

Just off to conference now. More anon.

/14 ENDS

@NickyMorgan01 @GregHands PS...@MichaelAodhan from NI Irish retail consortium doing his very best to be positive here. But still....