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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
After the collapse of talks in Hanoi, Kim set a very public deadline for significant sanctions relief -- the end of the year. I don't care if they shook hands and stepped into North Korea. There is no evidence that Kim has relaxed that demand.
Kim meet Trump because stroking Trump's ego seems like an effective tactic to achieve sanctions relief. The only interesting question now is whether Trump was sufficiently flattered to take the deal he walked away from in Hanoi.
Under that deal, North Korea would close Yongbyon in exchange for some sanctions relief. I don't pretend this will significantly constrain Kim's nuclear plans, but there is little hope Kim will disarm. It is past time to focus on other diplomatic goals.
pressreader.com/cambodia/globa…
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More from @ArmsControlWonk see all

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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
This really doesn't look like much of a geolocation challenge.
news.vice.com/en_us/article/…
Does that boat look like it belongs to the Kootenai County Sheriff? If so, I would start looking at lakeside properties around Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. No guarantees, but its a place to start. C'mon, let's crowdsource this.
Here are images of the house, as well as several shots of the dock and teepee.
Read 7 tweets
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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
A few more thoughts on the claims that Russia is conducting low-yield nuclear testing at the Novaya Zemlya test site.
While I do think it is strange that @DefenseIntel released the statement rather than @ODNIgov, if one looks at the @StateAVC compliance reports over the past few years, it is clear that the idea that Russia was conducting low-yield nuclear tests was gaining steam inside the IC.
A faction within the IC has been arguing since the 90s that Russia is conducting low-yield nuclear explosions. I would caution these arguments have led to embarrassing mistakes, like démarching Moscow over an earthquake. Still, stopped watches and all.
nytimes.com/2001/03/04/wor…
Read 11 tweets
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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
Kim Jong Un has visited another important defense factory and the site of its November 2017 ICBM launch. KCNA and Rodong Sinmun identified the place as the Phyongnam General Machine Plant, although it appears to be the March 16 Factory in Pyongsong: 39.2818, 125.8676.
KCNA did not release exterior images, but the inside of the building is a good match for the March 16 Factory. One image is from June 2, 2019; the other is from November 4, 2017. You can tell which is which.
A 3 meter satellite image from @planetlabs on June 1 does show an unusual object near the building where missiles launchers are completed. That object coincides with the possible visit by Kim although at 3 meters it could be anything. I say coincide/feel free to say coincidence.
Read 11 tweets

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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
“I understand they (the North Koreans) want to meet”, @POTUS said, explaining details still being worked out for his DMZ visit today.
“I want to say hello,” he added. “Let’s see what happens.”
“It will be very short but that’s OK. A handshake means a lot,” adds @POTUS in Seoul.
“This would be a significant milestone in the peace process on the Korean peninsula,” says @moonriver365 of possible DMZ handshake between @POTUS and Kim Jong Un.
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ᴸᵁᴸᵁ ᴸᴱ ᴹᴼᴼ 🐮
@LuluLemew
Trump’s Treachery Goes Way Beyond Russia

He’s working for any dictator who flatters him.

slate.com/news-and-polit…
Mueller has ended his Russia investigation, and Republicans are gloating.

Trump and his surrogates are lying.

Mueller has indicted dozens of people.

He has obtained multiple convictions and guilty pleas.
He has proved or confirmed that Manafort, Stone, Donald Jr., and others in the Trump camp collaborated with Russian agents or intermediaries.

According to the Justice Department, Mueller’s report also presents evidence that Trump may have obstructed justice.
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Matthew Gertz
@MattGertz
Based on some recent comments from President Trump and Lindsey Graham and from watching large quantities of Fox News, I think Republicans are planning on making Hillary Clinton's email server a key issue in the 2020 presidential campaign. (1/many)
Background: Republicans have spent decades demonizing Clinton. In 2015/6 they pretended to care about her email security, journalists pretended to believe them, the FBI investigated and found no crimes, and she lost to Trump in the 2016 presidential election. (2/x)
As the 2020 election gears up, you might expect Republicans to be engaged in an all-out effort to define the Democratic presidential candidates. There's been some of that... but Clinton and the FBI investigation into her email server have been coming up again. (3/x)
Read 31 tweets
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 763
-Prohibits Title X Clinics Fed Funding
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Lee Jones
@DrLeeJones
A report by @Beaking_News on @R4today explored possible EU #sanctions on #Myanmar's garment exports, in response to the #Rohingya atrocities. Here's a thread on why I think sanctions would be misguided.

/1
CC @ecfr @eucopresident @FedericaMog
As I argued in my 2015 @OUPpolitics book, Societies Under Siege, where Myanmar was a case study, it's crucial to consider HOW sanctions are supposed to achieve one's desired goals. HOW exactly will economic pain translate into political gain?
global.oup.com/academic/produ…

/2
This is rarely, if ever, done. Policymakers typically just impose sanctions in the vague hope that "pressuring the regime" will magically translate into the outcomes they seek. Usually they don't: sanctions fail 2/3 of the time. Myanmar was no different.

/3
Read 11 tweets
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Numberonepal
@numberonepal
A thread on Kim Clement and prophecies concerning North Korea. #Korea #KoreanUnification #GreatAwakening #QAnon #WWG1WGA
God said a sign shall be this - two signs shall I give you: one shall be the death of a leader who shall rapidly deteriorate in Korea. For God said, I will take both North and South and make it one. Kim, your days are numbered, says the Lord...
I'm speaking of the Prime Minister of North Korea. God said enough is enough. I want a sound to come and God said I will do it. But the other shall be the stepping down of a Prime Minister of the Lion of the Nation of Great Britain.
Kim Clement 9/15/2006
Read 27 tweets

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