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YouGov
@YouGov
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Boris Johnson still holds a commanding 74% to 26% lead over Jeremy Hunt in the ongoing leadership election, our latest poll of Conservative party members shows yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
One reason why Johnson hasn’t been damaged over the course of the campaign is because party members don’t really care about his private life - 77% say it’s not relevant to whether or not he would make a good prime minister yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Party member voting decisions are instead being driven by Brexit: whilst members doubt both candidates’ abilities to get a better deal, 90% think Boris Johnson would be prepared to proceed without a deal - just 27% think the same of Jeremy Hunt yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
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YouGov
@YouGov
The vast majority of Brits (78%) say that Boris Johnson’s premiership will be defined by Brexit yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/re…
37% of Britons think the Conservative Party will move to the Right under Boris Johnson, while 28% think it will stay roughly the same yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/re…
The majority of Brits (56%) say that Boris Johnson is ‘Britain’s Trump’. Of this group, 44% say this a bad thing, while 12% say it’s good yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/re…
Read 3 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
SNAP POLL: Which of the following best reflects your reaction to Boris Johnson becoming leader?
Dismayed: 37%
Pleased: 18%
Disappointed: 10%
Delighted: 10%
Don’t mind either way: 17%
yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/re…
SNAP POLL: By 43% to 37% Brits don't think Boris Johnson taking over as PM means there needs to be a general election yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/re…
SNAP POLL: Half of the British public (51%) and two thirds of Tory voters (65%) say Boris Johnson should offer Jeremy Hunt a position in the cabinet yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/re…
Read 4 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
Thread/ With Boris Johnson now confirmed to be our next Prime Minister, here’s what we know about what the public think of him yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
1/ He is much less popular than May was at the time she took over. Johnson currently has a net favourability score of -27, compared to May’s +12 in August 2016 (although he does beat her current score of -37) yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
2/ Britons tended to see him as a good Mayor of London, but a bad Foreign Secretary
Mayor of London – 47% good / 29% bad
Foreign Secretary – 26% good / 48% bad
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Anthony Wells
@anthonyjwells
A longish thread about trying to explain the differences in party support - primarily Labour - in the polls.
It is often very difficult to get to the bottom of the differences between polls. There is rarely one big, easy simple answer, it's normally a bit of lots of little, different to explain things. Hence stupid & simple explanations prosper.
One current cause seems to be different approaches to past vote weighting. Most pollsters* weight by how people voted at the last election (ensuring that the sample has 44% people who voted Conservative in 2017, 41% Labour in 2017 and so on)
Read 18 tweets
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Flavible Politics
@flaviblePolitic
YouGov Scenario Thread (2) - 27-06-2019

Westminster Voting Intention if:

Corbyn Sticking to Labour Alternative Brexit
Starmer Sticking to Labour Alternative Brexit

Corbyn 2nd Ref & Opposing Brexit
Starmer 2nd Ref & Opposing Brexit

Source: yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
YouGov (Corbyn Labour Brexit) - 2019-06-27
LDem: 30%
Con: 24%
BRX: 19%
Lab: 17%
SNP: 4%
Grn: 4%
PC: 1%

Flavible Projection
LDem: 209 (+197)
Con: 181 (-137)
Lab: 150 (-112)
SNP: 48 (+13)
BRX: 38 (+38)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
flavible.com/politics/map/p…
YouGov (Starmer Labour Brexit) - 2019-06-27
LDem: 29%
Con: 24%
BRX: 19%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 5%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%

Flavible Projection
LDem: 195 (+183)
Con: 191 (-127)
Lab: 154 (-108)
SNP: 48 (+13)
BRX: 38 (+38)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
flavible.com/politics/map/p…
Read 5 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
More Labour Party members voted Green than Lib Dem last week: @YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Nineteen per cent of Conservative Party members voted Conservative last week: @YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Six per cent of Tory members voted Lib Dem; 4% of Labour members voted Brexit Party: @YouGov
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
I have taken the 2014 European election votes and the recent YouGov survey (link) showing expected voting patterns in the upcoming European elections broken down by area/party, and projected how many MEPs they'd win. Pro-Remain parties are indicated by "*"
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
I'll go through each area, and give a "pro-Remain" voting recommendation.

EAST MIDLANDS (5 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-2)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 1 (=)
*Green: 1 (+1)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 2 (+2)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)

*Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Green
EAST OF ENGLAND (7 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-3)
Tories: 1 (-2)
Labour: 2 (+1)
* Green: 0 (=)
* LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
* Change UK: 1 (+1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Change UK, or Green (2nd among pro-Remain parties, and in contention for an MEP)
Read 18 tweets
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Sophie Hill
@sophie_e_hill
(1/?)
OK... I've finally snapped. Apparently this argument will never die 🧟‍♂️🧟‍♂️🧟‍♂️ but here's a thread anyway.

In short: there's NO EVIDENCE that refusing to back a public vote is a vote-maximizing position for Labour.
It's true that if we look at the 2016 results by constituency, a majority of Labour's current seats are probably majority Leave — including many marginal seats (h/t @chrishanretty).
So... doesn't this mean it would be electoral suicide for Labour to back a public vote? 😱

🙅‍♀️ No! Because public opinion has changed since the referendum!
Read 13 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
"Pro-EU parties to use European elections as 'soft referendum'"
* the approach outlined (no alliances or pacts, compete with other pro-EU parties) is literally the opposite of a referendum approach (combine/aggregate: seek majority).
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
It doesn't work as a proxy referendum
britishfuture.org/articles/europ…

Probable Change UK, Greens, LibDems, Renew contest in some regions reduces no of pro-Remain MEPs, eg 4-way split of 15-20% can "waste" votes under PR lists. (Eg waste < 5%, or end wasting 15% = no seats x4 if unlucky)
A particular risk in regions that are smaller & more challenging (eg especially north-east; also east midlands, east of england). It may be important in Wales, where Plaid means 5-way division of non-Labour pro-EU. Scotland a bit different again: major pro-EU party in SNP
Read 20 tweets

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