Thread by @GodlessNZ

(1) As the immediate danger from the 7/5/19 M7.1 earthquake in Ridgecrest, CA passes, I want to write a generic thread about emergency management, based on my personal and professional experiences.

The same myths & misconceptions are voiced every time.

🤔

(2) As regular readers know, I survived a quake that killed 185 & forever changed NZ's 3rd city, Christchurch. (2/22/11)

I have worked as a policy & PR adviser in agencies that had to keep services going.

Latterly I've studied social media after US disasters, for 3 years.

(3) A major disaster affects a whole country, no matter the size. Impacts are greatest at the epicenter of the earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, hurricane, flooding, or snowstorm. But everyone can benefit by learning from the mistakes of others, too.

(4) Regardless of your political views, there is always a role for government: As a regulator, owner, service provider, & conduit for taxpayer funds.

Partisan politics has NO place in the immediate response phase.

It has a place in planning, prepping, & recovery phases.

(5) Most people want government decisions before & after a disaster to be made with as much transparency, efficiency, effectiveness, & accountability as possible.

I have strong views about the best ways to do this, but I try to put them aside at the time lives are being saved.

(6) An earthquake cannot be "predicted" in the way a hurricane can. If anyone invents a way to predict quakes, it will be all over the news, & I will be talking about it too.

What seismologists *can* do is make probability estimates, which are quite helpful.

(7) Every time there is a significant earthquake in the US, I read the same set of assertions on social media:

>Californians are used to earthquakes and know what to do, we'll be fine

>Our building standards are great, we're not like third world country X or Y

Continued:

(8) More myths:

>This one hit a low population area, so it's nothing to worry about

>People in X or Y are always exaggerating minor earthquakes

>I heard there is tsunami warning for X in one hour

>You loot, I shoot

>Where is FEMA?

(9) And on and on... I will probably add a few more later in this thread.

None of these myths or inaccurate statements are helpful, to those affected, to their worried family & friends elsewhere, to first responders, to emergency management officials, to property owners etc.

(10) My response to the above claims:

>Generalizations don't help. SOME of those in CA are not ready for an earthquake, SOME are. Both groups deserve our help & sympathy at the time.

In fact, surveys show around 50% of Americans have a disaster kit at home.

(11) If you know what's happened in NZ since 2011, you don't put much faith in modern building standards in general; You look for the engineering report on the building you are planning to use.

We had brand new office blocks demolished after a fairly minor quake in 2016.

(12) The buildings were damaged in the quake & were not safe to use afterwards, bc they would not perform in a bigger quake.

115 of the 185 killed in Feb 2011 were in a building that engineers had cleared as safe after a Sep 2010 quake.

Minor damage can weaken a building.

(13) I've been dismayed at the comments I've seen that the Ridgeway earthquake is no big deal bc it hit a lower population area.

Not only is that just rude towards the people directly affected, it's ignorant about the flow-on effects the event will undoubtedly have elsewhere.

(14) This quake was strong enough to cause minor injuries in & near LA. Now, by "minor," officials mean "not life-threatening." An injury can still change a person's life forever. And I am still expecting to hear of heart attacks brought on by stress, too. That is a thing.

(15) Any significant earthquake does have wider flow-on effects in a developed country. Economic damage to individuals, companies, & government (taxpayer) resources can be huge. The money has to come from somewhere.

Polices are changed, too. That has all kinds of impacts.

(16) When there's a minor earthquake somewhere, it's easy to to criticize those who talk about their experiences. My approach is to try to raise awareness of the need to prepare for disasters, everywhere.

In today's attention deficit world, you have people's attention, briefly.

(17) The thought of a large tsunami hitting you is frightening. But they are much easier to predict & respond to than earthquakes. You have to understand how they work, so you can filter out the false alarms, while staying vigilant for the real ones.

(18) If you are on a beach or near the coast & you feel a quake, you need to consider what the probability of a tsunami is.

If it is "long or strong, get gone." You may only have 20-40 mins to get to higher ground.

You should practice your evacuation route beforehand.

(19) Forget using your car, unless you are in the middle of nowhere. Even then, the roads may be impassable from the earthquake damage.

You have to evacuate on foot. If you can't do that, don't live in a tsunami risk zone.

Have walking shoes with you.

(20) If the earthquake wasn't strong enough for an immediate response, then you may have several hours to evacuate, and/or the tsunami will be small.

Even 30cm/12 inches of tsunami can be hazardous bc of the speed and repeated waves. It's not just one wave.

(21) So, having said all that:

In most cases there isn't a significant tsunami risk, but officials still need to give out info, & some people panic about it, or even spread misinformation & fear when it's not warranted.

I saw that this time.

It was an inland quake.

(22) There was no way a 7.1 quake centered near Ridgecrest, CA was going to cause a tsunami hazard in LA or anywhere else.

Did you know that a 7.2 is twice as strong as a 7.1? That's the way the Richter scale works.

An inland 8 or 9 might have caused a tsunami, IDK.

(23) When I heard about the quake, I first wanted to know three things: Magnitude, depth, & location.

You can't know how bad it is unless you know all three.

Our 2011 EQ was a 6.3 but had a bigger impact than this 7.1 did.

nzhistory.govt.nz/page/christchu…

(24) I was used to earthquakes, having lived in cities that are even higher risk than Christchurch.

You don't know what a really bad one is like until you go through it.

This is the dust cloud from the falling buildings:

(25) So, it's important to educate yourself about earthquakes & tsunami generally & in the place you or those you care about live. That helps you prevent harm, deal with the aftermath, & resist false claims & misinformation.

Now, about looting. It always happens.

(26) After the NZ earthquake, we were too busy ensuring we had water, food, shelter, & medical care to worry about possessions.

The only worry I have about looting is that it can put first responders at risk. It would be great if they didn't have to police a disaster zone.

(27) As for "Where is FEMA?," again, this is where education before the disaster is important.

Too many people still believe that FEMA or other responders should come & save them, immediately. That isn't FEMA's role.

"You are your own first responder."

(28) It's YOUR job to set aside enough water, food & other supplies to keep you going for 7 days. We used to say 3 days but often, that's not enough.

You have to consider everything: How will you stay clean? Where will you poop?

(29) The chain of help goes like this:

>You
>Your household/workplace
>Your neighbors
>Local responders
>State level responders
>Federal level responders

FEMA will be working on it as fast as they can. They're better than they were in 2005, or even last year.

(30) Even if your local or state government are not doing an excellent job, you can count on other counties and states to pitch in, and of course the federal government too. About 20 major federal agencies help FEMA. Every town or county has a plan. They have to.

(31) I'll stop there for now, & add more later. From what I can see atm the response to those affected by yesterday's Ridgecrest earthquake is going very well.

It's part response, part drill... every agency involved will learn & improve.

Bigger quakes in CA are inevitable.