Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum (sorry, delayed) Weekly Recap wk28 as of 12Jul19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• RiskON continues, SPX slowly grinding to new ATH

• previously "exhausted" 10Y govt bonds retraced/profit taking & curve steepening

• Powell testified, odds rate cut 100%

2/n wk28 update Global Markets Momentum YTD overview

3/n wk28 update Global Markets overview WoW / MoM / YTD / YoY

4/n wk 28 update Global 10Y govt bonds heatmap

5/n wk28 update Global Yields 2Y 10Y curves FX

6/n wk28 update Global FX matrix

7/n wk28 update Global Markets Momentum / Trends / Exhaustion scoreboard

RiskOn continues (almost) everywhere

8/n Bond moves wk27 vs wk28 comparison

9/n samples 10Y BUNDs, BTPs, BONOs, TSYs short term roll over tacticals

• FGBL -2.7 points or +15bp
• FBTP still consolidating
• FBON -4 big figures or +37bp
• ZN -1*22 points or +20bp

10/n samples 30Y BUXLs TSYs TLT short term roll over

• FGBX -9 big figures or +19bp
• ZB -4 points or +18bp

11/n update US swap curves going forward vs SPX

"re-steepening used to be <the> warning sign" . time will tell

12/n update ECB's nightmare = inflation expectations... little bounce off the lows

13/n update on Credit markets

• as long as those guys don't severely move UP, it will be RiskOn in general

14/n update RiskGauges Credit Default swap index and VIX

• RiskOn for the time being
• Vola getting sold on FED put, rate cuts expectations, but could be a sign of coiling too.

15/n update on VSTOXX

• Europe is such a lovely place
• Macro picture is horrendous
• ECB narrative to restart QE, possibly rate cuts
• implied STOXX vola depressed to nearly ATL

16/n update US stocks breadth

% of stocks > 50d SMA or > 200d SMA:

• NYA 74+ 67+
• SPX 85+ 75+
• NDX 86+ 79+
• OEX 88+ 77+

17/n update US dashboard wk28

• Global Macro bad
• US Macro weakening
• all due to previously too hawkish FED (now dovish) and tariff war (ending soon?)
• FED will cut, it's all fully priced in now

18/n US job market

• This chart shows JOLTS vs UE rate (inverted scale)
• JOLTS ( Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) can rise but can also be misleading. They can roll over too and perfectly mirror UE rate (inv)
• 2Y rolled over FF target, time will tell if cycle is done

19/n chartview of Japan's bad Machine tool new orders

• super bad at -38% YoY
• hits -1.2z
• 1) BoJ QQE is totally irrelevant
• 2) historically one can also expect a rebound soon, unless we have a total global meltdown like 2008/2009

20/n did someone notice BoC statement ?

"everything is 1.5-2%"

• GDP
• CPI
• PPI
• Overnight Rate
• Deposit Rate
• 2Y govvies
• 10Y govvies
• 30Y govvies

is this a joke ???

...

• TSE YTD +15%
• EWC YTD +21%

21/n non market related : Tennis GOATs comparison

• Federer #20
• Nadal #18
• Djokovic #16 *

another epic 5hours battle at Wimbledon yesterday for the history books.

22/n that's all folks

have a great and successful and enjoyable week ahead

23/end @threadreaderapp unroll