Thread by @remainvoter

We thought it would be useful to summarise the secret Brexit report which is deemed too sensitive for the public to see. Compiled by government economists, your MPs are allowed to view the dossier under strictly supervised conditions - No phones etc.

This secret report is the best attempt by the government to assess what will happen to Britain in the 15 years after Brexit. The secret report shows three different scenarios but not May's proposed deal, which is somewhat undefined.

Economic growth - GDP would be 2% lower in 15 years times than would have otherwise been the case under the Norway terms, 5% lower under the Canada terms, and 8% lower under WTO terms.

Public finances - Britain would need to borrow £20bn more by 2033 under the Norway terms, £55bn under Canada and £80bn under WTO.

Higher business costs - Leaving the EU’s customs union and the single market, would generate non-tariff barriers. Things like at the border, rules-of-origin complications and the costs associated with differing standards.

This is a crucial point. Brexit promoters hold out that that regulatory divergence will be an advantage for the UK. The secret government report shows that it will actually cost businesses more in compliance costs.

The extra costs for each sector in percentage terms:
SectorNorCanWTO
Chemicals61212.5
Agriculture81518
F&B 81417
Def 61118
Edu 6 1118
Health 61118
Retail 7820
Manf. 51012

Importance of trade openness The secret Brexit report ranks the importance of access to the EU on a scale of 0-1 across various sectors. The top three are:

Pharmaceuticals1
Automotive0.9
Chemicals0.8

Migration The paper concludes that if Britain cuts free movement from the EU and applies the same visa regime that it currently applies to nationals from non-European countries, this would lead to GDP being 1.1 per cent lower by 2033.

Third-country trade deals- The report suggests they are likely to be less lucrative than many Brexiters had predicted and will not make up for the loss of trade with Europe.

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A redo of the poorly formatted table above