Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Another Chinese naval base: Per the WSJ, China signed a secret agreement allowing it to use a Cambodian navy base. Details are unclear, but an early draft had a 30-year term & a large airport is also under construction nearby.

The WSJ positioned this as potentially China’s second overseas naval base – after its base in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa. However, analysts noted that China also has another facility underway in Gwadar, Pakistan: it’s building its capacity to project power.

.@LyleJMorris argued that Cambodia’s neighbours should exert public and private pressure on Cambodia to stop the facility becoming a full-fledged Chinese military base. The neighbours most affected – Vietnam & Thailand – must take the lead.

Another trade war: Per Evan Medeiros, two of the US’ core allies – Japan & South Korea – have become embroiled in a trade war which risks (i) undermining the US alliance network (ii) doing China’s work for it (iii) normalising unilateral sanctions (iv) hurting regional prosperity

The conflict has historical roots. “South Koreans harbor deep resentment about Japan’s colonization of the country [1910-45]…& feel they have not been adequately compensated. Japan harbors deep frustration about its…substantial efforts…to amend for its past crimes”.

Per Medeiros, the US is the only actor that can broker peace, and refocus the US allies on the larger strategic issues at stake in the region. He prescribed that Trump: (i) call both leaders (ii) send Mike Pompeo over & (iii) if needed, travel to meet with both leaders himself.

Iran seized two British tankers & released one: Per @MichaelSinghDC, this was likely (i) a response against the UK’s seizure of an Iranian tanker (ii) a deliberate targeting of what Iran sees as a vulnerable US ally in hope they will turn around & press for a change in US policy.

Singh argued that we should “expect to see more attacks” in the Persian Gulf. “Deterring Iran is complicated by the fact that they are already suffering extreme economic disruption, & Trump has made clear he does not wish to go to war. Iran likely feels it has little to lose”.

.@suzannedimaggio argued “Iran's actions are wrong but Trump recklessly set this fire. Since reneging, the US' stance has been consistently coercive with an intention to bait a still compliant Iran...the result is a dangerous [& avoidable] escalation”.

Three thought-provoking articles / threads:

.@BeijingPalmer argued that the CCP’s use of Triads to attack protestors in Hong Kong is part of a broader policy. “People often miss how much of Party control outside of the mega cities (and sometimes even there) is effectively outsourced to gangsters”.

He continued, the CCP “sometimes functions as the higher levels of the mafia and other [crime] syndicates do; it allocates and controls lower levels of criminal activity while demanding a cut of the action in return. This often clashes with the more ideological side of the party”

.@TomMcTague profiled likely incoming British PM, Boris Johnson: “a self-confessed megalomaniac who shies away from confrontation; a dishevelled mess who bumbles from one success to the next”. He’s a charming, needy man with “yearning to be loved” and a “rapier intellect”.

McTague quoted a Professor Johnson debated: “Boris is very charming, very plausible, but cuts fast and loose with the facts. He does that over Brexit and he did that here”. His style of argument: “plausible, optimistic, fun and wrong!”

Edward Luce argued that there’s method behind Trump’s race-baiting nastiness. “His goal is to force Democrats to unite behind the so-called Squad of four non-white Congresswomen, whose radicalism is not popular in the US heartland…That, in [his] view is his ticket to a 2nd term”

Three events to watch in the near future:

Italian machinations: Per Stratfor, there are “deep frictions” in Italy's governing coalition. The League has threatened to leave it, triggering fresh elections. But if it does, there's a chance the Five Star Movement finds a new partner, putting the League back in opposition”.

They continue: “this is giving League leaders a lot to think about as they plan their next moves. The Italian Parliament will enter its summer recess in August, and the League is running out of time to make its move if it wants an election to happen in September”.

Khan visits Trump: @d_extrovert argued that the effort made by Pakistan to secure this meeting suggests that it is uncomfortable with having just one benefactor. Pakistan has always pursued a two-benefactor policy as its leaders know the cost China can extract as sole patron.

Bolton’s future: amidst speculation that Bolton’s tenure may be tenuous, @jonathanvswan reported to the contrary. “Trump thinks that Bolton is a key part of his negotiating strategy…He thinks that Bolton's bellicosity and eagerness to kill people is a bargaining chip”.

But, argued @Nick_L_Miller, “if Bolton is so helpful to Trump’s negotiating strategy, then why is North Korea still building nukes, Maduro still in power, and Iran accelerating its nuclear program and seizing tankers?”

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word! We’re continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors