Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

EU Elections: the populist surge which many feared didn’t happen, but EU politics continues to fragment. Per the NYT, populists increased their vote share to ~25%, up from ~20%, but high voter turnout helped temper their results.

.@CER_Grant argued that “populists have not done well enough to make a big impact on the way the European Parliament [EP] works”. The centre left & centre right parties will expand their coalition, and “managing the EP will be a bit more complicated”.

Per Grant, “the biggest impact could be on national, not EU politics”. In UK: Labour may shift to a policy of a 2nd ref to hold onto votes. In Germany: Merkel’s coalition is at risk. In Italy: Salvini has done so well, he could try an election to form majority govt.

A big win for Modi: his BJP took 303 of the 542 seats in India’s lower house. Sumit Ganguly argued that “poor economic performance should have hurt [Modi]...Instead, appeals to nationalism won him the vote”. Per @DrIanHall , a weak opposition & a well-funded campaign also helped.

.@Chellaney argued that “Modi’s election triumph represents a fresh mandate for him to reinvent India as a more secure, confident and competitive country, and forge closer ties with natural allies such as Japan” – ties which could “reshape the Asian strategic landscape”.

But, Hall argued, Modi may find his 2nd term“far more difficult”, with risks including (i) continuously building Chinese pressure (ii) a possible “serious falling out” with Trump over trade / India’s purchases of Iranian oil & Russian arms & (iii)the "ever present" Pakistan issue

Bye Theresa: May will step down as Conservative party leader on June 7. @alexmassie argued that “even if [May] were dealt a poor hand, she still played it poorly”. She began the process of leaving the EU before she had a plan & drew negotiating red lines which imprisoned herself.

Per @A_Sloat, May will remain PM until a successor is chosen, likely “sometime in July”.Per @PredictIt, Boris Johnson (51%) leads that race, ahead of Dominic Raab (20%) & Michael Gove (9%).Thus, @NYTimesCohen argued that Britain now stands “on the brink of Boris Johnson & Chaos”.

Johnson has pledged to renegotiate with the EU, and if he fails, take “no-deal” on Oct 31. @thomaswright08 argued “the problem for Boris though is that parliament will require him to request a further extension. Then what? Probably a general election in late November”.

Three thought provoking articles:

.@RHFontaine argued that a key feature of the Cold War was “linkage – rewarding co-operation in one area by relaxing tension in another, punishing bad behaviour in one domain by imposing costs elsewhere”. And linkage could expand the US-China rivalry into an “unbounded conflict”.

.@stephenWalt argued that there may be a “gradual collapse of America’s Asian alliances…In theory, preventing this outcome should be fairly easy”. As balance-of-power theory predicts, states threatened by China’s rise should “join forces to deter or contain” its initiatives.

But, he continued, “managing a balancing coalition” won’t be easy as (i)the distances involved are vast, which tempts states to ignore distant problems (ii)states do not want to jeopardize economic ties with China &(iii)potential coalition partners have disputes with one another.

.@mikepilger argued that cutting $200b from the US defence budget, &reallocating it to education & climate change “is feasible…But progressives need to understand & explain why. They're right the money belongs elsewhere, but they sound silly if they offer no alternative plan”.

Pilger’s plan?Dial down the US’ focus on expensive aircraft carriers & next gen fighter jets. Instead use “submarines and anti-missile, air, and ship weapons [to] create an A2/AD bubble in East Asia that mirrors China’s”.This could deter China while saving “hundreds of billions”.

Three events to watch in the near-future:

Rare earths threat: last Monday, Xi toured a rare earths facility, alongside his chief trade negotiator Liu He. Per @GrahamTAllison, this was a “subtle threat to strangle America’s supplies of rare earths ” in response to the Trump administration’s pressure on Huawei.

The problem, argued Allison, is that Xi’s threat demonstrates how US-China rivalry can spread”from one domain to another. It can go from tech, to supply chains until it touches “every aspect of bilateral relations”. This risks “massive spillover costs to the global economy”.

A new US Indo-Pacific Strategy: On June 1, @ActingSecDef will use the Shangri-La Dialogue to speak on what it means for the Indo-Pacific to be the US’ military’s “priority theatre”. He’ll also detail how that will manifest in US “resources and presence” in the region.

.@DerekJGrossman tweeted “big changes are ongoing in the Pentagon to make good on the Indo-Pacific Strategy…Shanahan’s ‘China, China, China’ mantra [is] indeed the guiding light. Glad to see US finally focusing less on the Middle East & more on US-China…competition”.

US-Iran tensions continue: On May 30, Saudi Arabia will host “Emergency Summits” for both the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League, to address tensions with Iran. Further, the Trump admin has announced it will send a further 1,500 troops to the region amidst the tensions.

76 retired generals, admirals, & ambassadors wrote an open letter to Trump expressing their “deep concern with the current escalation with Iran”. They noted “how quickly disputes can spiral out of control” and urged the establishment of “crisis de-escalation measures”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We’re continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors