Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Brexit likely postponed: the British Parliament voted to ask the EU to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. The Parliament also (i) rejected May’s deal again (ii) rejected a no deal Brexit, & (iii) rejected a second referendum.

.@A_Sloat argued that there’ll “almost certainly” now be an extension – the question is how long. If May can pass her deal this week, she’ll request a 3-month extension to allow implementation. If she can’t, she’ll likely request a lengthier extension – to reconsider options.

But for May to get an extension, all 27 EU leaders must unanimously assent. And it’s not yet clear they’re all on board. Further, @BBCkatyaadler notes the possibility that a holdout state uses Brexit as leverage “to win a concession from Brussels over a separate issue.”

North Korean impasse: @DavidNakamura reported that the Hanoi summit finally “convinced the President that the regime is unwilling to surrender its nuclear program”. Now, the Trump admin is struggling for a path forward, amidst reports that NK may be prepping for a launch.

.@MintaroOba argued “if diplomacy with North Korea is to succeed, John Bolton must go”. The man’s outlook on NK “has long been a mix of hard-line, inflexible positions”. He’s unsuccessfully chased an implausible grand bargain in a context which demands a more flexible approach.

EU hardens on China: The EU released its strategic outlook on China, calling it an “economic competitor… and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”. The EU will now “robustly seek” a “more balanced and reciprocal” economic relationship with China.

.@FredKempe argued that although the EU-China strategic outlook document “marks a major shift in [EU] thinking” it’s still “belated and insufficient”. The EU and US should set aside their differences and address the “urgent need for a common approach to China”.

Three thought-provoking articles:

.@beccalew warned as early as September 2018 that YouTube may be radicalising young people by (i) hosting content which normalises white nationalist positions, & (ii) encouraging users to “follow bread crumb trails [from standard right-wing views] to more extreme ... positions”.

Reflecting on her earlier warnings in light of the NZ Mosque Massacre, Lewis said “much like a lot of researchers and journalists on this beat, I’m yo-yo-ing between hopeless and furious. It’s not gratifying to be right in this situation.”

@SaakashviliM argued that Putin’s “most likely target in the near future is either Finland or Sweden”. Russian tanks wont roll into Helsinki or Stockholm. “But it would be relatively simple for Moscow to execute a land grab in a remote Arctic enclave or on a small island”.

.@davidfickling unpacked the difficulties of extrapolating GDP figures, in order to predict when one country will overtake another. He finds: it’s such an inexact art, that “depending on your growth rates [& exchange rates], China might outrun the US in four years, or never”.

Three events to watch in the near future:

Xi goes to Rome: defying the EU’s hardening stance towards China, Italy’s populist government has decided to sign on to China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). Xi is now expected to use his visit to Rome to sign a non-binding MoU with the Italian Government.

.@PhLeCorre argued that “long-term Italy will be better served by aligning with the rest of Europe instead of splitting it ... short-term economic motives provide a valid rationale for seeking a partnership with Beijing, but unity in the bloc is the best way to deliver this”.

Trump and Bolsonaro meet: the “Trump of the Tropics” and the Real Donald Trump will convene in the White House. It’s a key meeting for Bolsonaro, whose foreign policy, per @AmerQuarterly, “is built around one single promise: to transform the US into Brazil’s key partner”.

@OliverStuenkel argued that the agenda may include (i) what to do about Venezuela (ii) making Brazil a major non-NATO ally (iii) limiting China’s influence in Latin America (iv) greater aerospace co-operation (v) Brazil’s OECD membership bid (vi) trade, & (vii) ambassadors.

Eyes on Idlib: Crisis Group reports that the “agreement between Turkey and Russia that protects Syria’s rebel-held Idlib governorate from a regime offensive is under increasing stress. Clashes between jihadists and other militants inside Idlib and regime forces have escalated”.

@CrisisGroup argued that “Turkey and Russia should recommit to their Idlib agreement…Turkey should expand its patrols inside the area, as both Turkey and Russia push the regime and rebels to halt violence”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We’re continually humbled by the following we’re gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors