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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
There's an interesting parallel with Brexit in "Atlas Shrugged", towards the end of the book. The looters have come for Rearden to demand his voluntary help (yes, that contradiction is the whole point).
They come because they have no answers of their own, but expect him always to have one. Even in literally impossible situations.
I'm sure you've already made the connection, but just in case (it is *very* hot, after all) - the looters are the Brexiters, demanding that the Remainers (Rearden) "solve" Brexit so that it is a success, even though that's a clear impossibility.
The book's politically dubious (to say the least) but has a lot of interesting stuff in it. It's a doorstop of a read but can be rewarding if you persevere. The text is available online at the link below, though frankly it's *much* easier in book form!
archive.org/stream/AtlasSh…
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Utterly remarkable thread. Doing this thread as a series of screenshots because presumably the original of this will be going away as soon as Jared O'Mara catches up with what "he" has been tweeting...
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Labour is shedding members fast...

"Official figures put the total at just under 485,000 - down from a peak of 564,000 at the end of 2017. That includes around 35,000 supporters whose subscriptions are in arrears."
politicshome.com/news/uk/politi…
So if we're going only by fully paid up members, that's a loss of 114,000 or 20%.

How comfortable is the fence now, Jeremy Corbyn?
In pounds and pence terms, those 114,000 members would be worth:
£5,882,400/year (Standard member)
or
£2,968,560/year (Reduced member)
or
£342,000/year (Other member)

If we assume 1/3 of each category quit, that's just over £3 million pounds a year in membership dues gone.
Read 5 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Spot when the referendum happened... This is the GBP/Euro chart...
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
uk.finance.yahoo.com/chart/GBPEUR%3…
And the GBP/USD chart. Again, it's very, very subtle, but if you look closely you may be able to spot the referendum effect...
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
uk.finance.yahoo.com/chart/GBPUSD%3…
So that's a long-term 14% fall in the value of the Pound against the Dollar, and a long-term 13% fall in the value of the Pound against the Euro.

That is a direct effect of Brexit.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop
A lot of guff today (only a little of it from Boris!) on the £39bn #Brexit ‘divorce bill’ which the UK is expected to pay as part of May's deal. The key point is that the £39bn is meant to honour commitments *already made* during the period of the UK’s membership... (1/8)
It is therefore simply wrong for #Remainers to claim that the £39bn is a ‘cost’ of Brexit that we could avoid by staying in (and that it should have been on the side of a bus too). In reality, the £39bn is money the UK would have had to pay anyway, even if still a member… (2/8)
However, it would also be wrong to assume that we would save the whole £39bn by leaving with #nodeal. I’m well aware that many experts (including a HoL committee) have argued that the UK would be on strong *legal* ground if we decided to walk away without paying a penny… (3/8)
Read 9 tweets
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David Hills
@WanderinTeacake
1/ A thread about the Government's response to the petition asking for a Public Inquiry into illegality in the #Brexit referendum, because this sort of self-serving and bilious dismissal of the public needs calling out sometimes. And I'm cross.
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/2418…
2/ Statement-by-statement...

Yes investigations are carried out by the EC, but not solely. The Government could, to take an example completely at random, choose to launch a public inquiry based on the conclusions of an investigation by the Electoral Commission. If it chose.
3/ Yes, we know. That's the point of the petition, to ask you to make plans. There would be no point petitioning you to do something you are already doing, would there?
Read 29 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. I am told I should welcome the efforts of @betterbrexit. I'm not impressed. It's too little, far too late and ill thought out. EEA might well be a large part of the solution but it is not a miracle solution and moving into it from the position of being an EU member is not easy
2. To maintain frictionless trade we would need a customs protocol to go with it along with a series of negotiated annexes which may take a number of years to complete. It's not as simple as just filling in an Efta application form.
3. EEA has often been described as an off the shelf solution (even by me) but it is only off the shelf insofar as it is an existing framework. It still needs to be beaten into shape and will have to take into account the concerns and red lines of Efta members.
Read 22 tweets
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Richard Broughton
@Richard_Ampere
Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? More analysis, with more data and charts!

Part 4: **Is news outlets’ focus on abstract concepts a reason voter opinions are slow to shift?**

(AKA ‘Who cares about Brexit’s impact on the media industry anyway’)
Usual caveats apply.

For previous pieces, see:
I also did an analytical piece on whether it was plausible that overspending swung the EU referendum result – if you’re interested, it’s here:

TLDR – the answer is “it’s certainly possible”
Read 21 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Interesting how the #Brexit weather has changed in Brussels.

U.K. preparing to publish a customs paper which essentially lays out idea of all-U.K. customs union for the temporary backstop.

Understand won’t tackle alignment or ECJ etc.

And yet... /1
Per senior EU source who is not usually too charitable towards bungling Brits: “we are in the mood of trying to welcome the UK customs paper as much as we can" /2
It’s not two weeks since everyone was daggers drawn over Galileo and U.K. demands for its billion back. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
1/ A quick, rough thread on what's in the Transition Guidelines, and what the text can mean. The PDF of the guidelines is here: consilium.europa.eu/media/32504/xt…
2/ "In particular, the provisions of the Citizens' rights part of the
withdrawal agreement should apply as from the end of the transition period" page 4. De facto #Brexit date for FoM is hence end 2020.
3/ Para 13. "Notwithstanding paragraph 18 of these negotiating directives, the Union acquis should apply to and in the United Kingdom as if it were a Member State." Para 18 is about institutions, hence everything else applies.
Read 15 tweets

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