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There's many depressing things to say about Britain's new Prime Minister.
Here's a political scientist's take: It shows that institutionalist explanations don't tell us much about populism. Just as water finds its level, populists find a way to succeed in any political system.
Here's a political scientist's take: It shows that institutionalist explanations don't tell us much about populism. Just as water finds its level, populists find a way to succeed in any political system.
For a long time, political scientists said that majoritarian political systems better protect against populism:
If populists have 10% of the vote, they play a large role in systems with proportional representation. But they remain locked out in majoritarian systems.
If populists have 10% of the vote, they play a large role in systems with proportional representation. But they remain locked out in majoritarian systems.
True.
But now we know that majoritarian systems may be particularly vulnerable once populists are supported by ~30% of the electorate.
Because at that point, they can either take over establishment parties (Trump, Corbyn) or displace them.
But now we know that majoritarian systems may be particularly vulnerable once populists are supported by ~30% of the electorate.
Because at that point, they can either take over establishment parties (Trump, Corbyn) or displace them.
This is the dilemma the Conservative Party now faced:
1) Let Boris Johnson take over the party (and the country) on a populist platform.
2) Or be replaced by Nigel Farage's openly populist Brexit Party.
Without much hesitation, the Tories picked 1).
1) Let Boris Johnson take over the party (and the country) on a populist platform.
2) Or be replaced by Nigel Farage's openly populist Brexit Party.
Without much hesitation, the Tories picked 1).
Of course, the nature of a country's electoral institutions will still influence the nature of a country's populists.
In particular, PR makes the rise of new populist parties more likely. Majoritarianism makes the takeover of existing parties by populists more likely.
In particular, PR makes the rise of new populist parties more likely. Majoritarianism makes the takeover of existing parties by populists more likely.
But I've grown pretty skeptical of the idea that some political systems make their countries significantly safer from populism than others.
[Nearly the End.]
[Nearly the End.]
Oh, and on a less political sciencey note:
Britain is soooo screwed.
[The end.]
Britain is soooo screwed.
[The end.]
