Thread by @ConUnit_UCL

NEW BLOG: Can Boris Johnson ignore parliament and force a no deal Brexit?

Meg Russell and Robert Hazell conclude the answer is 'no', but that MPs will need to be organised and determined if they want to prevent a 'no deal'

THREAD 1/15

Read it here: constitution-unit.com/2019/08/08/can…

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird Today’s new post builds on an earlier one (link below) by the same authors

It addresses claims Johnson could ignore parliament, refusing to go if there's a vote of no confidence, or forcing a no deal Brexit during a general election campaign

2/15

constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird Russell and Hazell also note, as another previous post (link below) did that it is problematic to have no parliamentary scrutiny of Johnson over the summer

This scrutiny gap is feeding increasingly wild claims on both sides

3/15

constitution-unit.com/2019/07/23/pre…

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird If MPs want to block a no deal they have two legally watertight mechanisms: pass legislation to require the government to seek a Article 50 extension, or defeat Johnson in a vote of no confidence and install another government that pledges to pursue such an extension

4/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird A vote of no confidence (VONC) under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act doesn’t trigger an immediate election, but a 14 day period during which MPs can vote confidence in a new government

5/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird An early election triggered by Johnson would require a 2/3 Commons majority, which MPs could deny (even by simply abstaining) until an Article 50 extension had been secured.

They need to do this to be sure of avoiding a no deal

6/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird If a VONC occurred, Johnson would likely remain as Prime Minister short-term, but be bound by the ‘caretaker convention’, limiting government decisions. This should, the authors argue, prevent him taking the UK out of the EU on a no deal

7/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird If there were doubts about Johnson’s interpretation of the caretaker convention (MPs should test this straightaway, for example via an urgent question), the Commons could move either to legislate or to install a new government within the 14 days

8/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird Support for a new government could be demonstrated by MPs in various ways: for example voting on a humble address, or even just signing an early day motion. This would signal to the Queen who to appoint in Johnson’s place

9/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird A cross-party ‘government of national unity’ (GNU) has been mooted. This might be led by a centrist MP from either the Conservatives or Labour, and pledged to seek an Article 50 extension.

10/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird The Labour frontbench might resist a GNU, as it wants a general election. But its support would be essential. Hence compromises must be found.

The GNU could be explicitly short-term, committed to dissolving itself after the extension was agreed

11/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird There is no risk of a GNU overstaying its welcome. If it broke a pledge to resign, it could in turn be brought down by MPs in a vote of no-confidence, triggered if necessary by the Labour leadership

12/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird If MPs demonstrate their support for a new Prime Minister, the Queen would be duty-bound to appoint that person

If Johnson refused to go in these circumstances, she could sack him. The PM’s authority as her principal adviser rests on him enjoying the Commons' confidence

13/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird It is astonishing to even consider flouting parliamentary decisions in this way, given the UK’s tradition of parliamentary sovereignty.

Our political constitution rests on key actors respecting the rules and conventions

14/15

@UKandEU @StudyofParl @psa_parl @UCL_EI @anandMenon1 @HansardSociety @DrHannahWhite @jasimsoncaird In the end, constitutional questions in the UK are settled politically, which means ultimately in parliament.

If the government starts tearing up the rules, the risk is parliament could do the same.

15/15

The full new post is here:

constitution-unit.com/2019/08/08/can…