Profile picture
Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
🚨 #BrexitDiagram Series 3, V 9 - the last before the summer break! 🚨

Johnson survived his first week, and we can draw some conclusions from his statements and appointments so far
This one has slightly different outcomes to previous versions, inc. a new Deal and then General Election option (with DUP abandoning the Tories), based on @JohnOBrennan2's thinking.

How this might play for an election has been influenced by @syrpis @pmdfoster comments.
Essentially:
Chances of a General Election are ⬆️
Chances of a #PeoplesVote are ⬇️
Chances Commons blocks No Deal are ⬆️, so overall chance of No Deal is ⬇️
As ever high res PNG and PDF files, the .ods for the calculation, and the XML for the diagram are on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

And input very welcome, especially if you disagree with the odds on a particular node!

Tomorrow: 🏝☀️ for me... Holiday!

/ends
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jon Worth
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#BrexitDiagram #PeoplesVote

More from @jonworth see all

Profile picture
Jon Worth
@jonworth
If the UK Government’s forthcoming No Deal Info campaign were honest it’d contain things like the following...
Supplies of 🐖 and 🐓 are not guaranteed

We urge you to eat 🥩 and 🐑 instead
Imports of cod and haddock are not assured

We urge you to eat mackerel and haddock instead
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Jon Worth
@jonworth
Over the last 48h as the idea that Johnson will call an election has grown, and especially in response to my latest #BrexitDiagram, I have heard the question raised

"What happens if Britain crashes out (No Deal) during a General Election campaign?"

My response: it won't happen
Think of how an election is to be called: under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) it needs a 2/3 majority of MPs to trigger an early election
There is a narrow time window for that to happen in September, and then for the election to happen on 24th October, before the UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 31st October - see the @commonslibrary timetable here:
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Jon Worth
@jonworth
Right then.

All the Dominic Cummings tweet archive is back on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/dominic-cummin…

Damn it's on days like this I wish my internet was faster.

Some what-Cummings-tweeted highlights in this thread!
On David Davis
Thread on why Vote Leave won 1/3
Read 18 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Steve Peers
@StevePeers
1/ CJEU, last rulings today before the summer break. Includes three big copyright judgments
2/ CJEU, Facebook and data protection law

Latest judgment on who is the data controller when Facebook works with others
3/ Full text of today's CJEU judgments

1/ Facebook and data protection law - curia.europa.eu/juris/fiche.js…

2/ Environmental impact assessment for extension of life of nuclear power stations - curia.europa.eu/juris/fiche.js…
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
The @WTO Director-General manages 625 people. He has no discretionary authority to create, enforce or interpret trade rules.

But hey, if the Prime Minister wants to skip Brussels, Paris and Berlin to come hang with me by the lake in Genf, I'll start mixing the Aperol Spritz's.
Also, the WTO shuts the hell down in August. Today and tomorrow are the final General Council meetings before the summer break.

Seriously, they all bloody leave. It's a ghost town.

Everyone in the city just points their call forwarding at each other and fucks off.
So to summarize, the proposal here is that the incoming Prime Minister "sends a message" by ditching EU capitals for Geneva, to hang out in a largely empty building chatting to an international civil servant with no authority whatsoever over Britain's post-Brexit fate.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Janis Emmanouilidis
@jaemmanouilidis
Hearing many exaggerations these days. So, here an attempt to put things into perspective: (1) yes, (s)election of new #EU leadership involves power politics in #EP & #EUCO & between them, but that's how politics & democracy function – at all levels incl. #EU – get used to it;
(2) yes, #Spitzenkandidaten process not perfect, but it is here to stay although it needs to be reformed before 2024 #EP elections (incl. introduction of #TransnationalList) – 2019 experience should provide lessons to everyone (including European & national political parties);
(3) yes, #EP increasingly runs risk of being sidelined in leadership (s)election process, but majority in Parliament can still agree on common candidate for COM-P, who has a chance to be nominated by #EUCO;
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Ellen Coyne
@ellenmcoyne
Report stage of the #legisl8 bill resuming in the Dáil shortly. Here is my report from last night - thetimes.co.uk/edition/irelan…
We're still on Amendment 28, backed by Carol Nolan which seeks to ban abortion on grounds of sex, race or disability up to 12 weeks. Ms Nolan says there are "paternalistic cultures" which could force women to have abortions for certain reasons.
Simon Harris is explaining to the Dáil that the bill does not permit abortion on grounds of sex, race or disability and claims the point of the amendment is to make the whole bill "inoperable" because it would require a doctor to be able to read a woman's thoughts.
Read 54 tweets
Profile picture
Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
A couple of points on issue connection at this week's #EUCO

1/
Brexit is on the agenda, but right down the list, as EU has plenty of other stuff to deal with.

Info here: consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/eu…

2/
That other stuff is proving problematic, and pressingly so, so expect it to take up much of the bandwidth tomorrow and Fri

3/
Read 12 tweets
Profile picture
50 Million Missing
@50millionmissin
In Delhi a 11 month old girl died because the hospital refused to treat her without an #Aadhaar card.

#AadhaarFemicide
#AadhaarWarOnWomen
#AadhaarKills
#DestroyTheAadhaar

amarujala.com/amp/delhi-ncr/…
2/n.
In Chandigarh, a woman was refused #abortion because she did not have an Aadhaar. She sought a back alley abortion and suffered extreme bleeding and complications.

#AadhaarWarOnWomen

#AadhaarFemicide

#AadhaarKills

#DestroyTheAadhaar

dnaindia.com/india/report-a…
3/n. HIV+ women in India have stopped their treatment as hospitals demand the biometric Aadhaar. The women fear loss of anonymity & social stigma on them and their families. newindianexpress.com/states/karnata…

#AadhaarWarOnWomen
#AadhaarFemicide
#AadhaarKills
#DestroyTheAadhaar
Read 53 tweets

Trending hashtags

#vélotaf #DépassionnonsLeDébat #Score #gangraped #IWD2018 #biometric #RightToEducation #AadhaarLeaks #végétales #vaccination #StoriesBehindTheStatistics #PseudoSciences #AadhaarFemicide #éducation #training #Commission #Spitzenkandidaten #spiruline #MuslimBan #DemandBetter #HumansOfAadhaar #carence #AadhaarFail #ImplantedDevice #DestroyTheAadhaar
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!