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Over the last 48h as the idea that Johnson will call an election has grown, and especially in response to my latest #BrexitDiagram, I have heard the question raised
"What happens if Britain crashes out (No Deal) during a General Election campaign?"
My response: it won't happen
"What happens if Britain crashes out (No Deal) during a General Election campaign?"
My response: it won't happen
Think of how an election is to be called: under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) it needs a 2/3 majority of MPs to trigger an early election
There is a narrow time window for that to happen in September, and then for the election to happen on 24th October, before the UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 31st October - see the @commonslibrary timetable here:
Any General Election date *later than* 24 October (31st October is the next Thursday!) necessitates an extension of the Article 50 negotiation period
But back to the FTPA - can you imagine 2/3 of MPs agreeing to a General Election without that being coupled with a demand that the Prime Minister requests an extension of the Article 50 period?
NO. Not a chance.
NO. Not a chance.
Can you see the EU refusing a demand from the UK for a few extra weeks because the UK is organising an election?
NO. Not a chance.
The EU will not push the UK off a No Deal cliff because the UK is holding an election.
NO. Not a chance.
The EU will not push the UK off a No Deal cliff because the UK is holding an election.
There is of course another way here... if a VONC were successful, and there is no agreement on a new government after a fortnight, then a General Election ensues.
But during that fortnight the Commons can then - using a Cooper-Boles approach - pass a law requesting extension.
But during that fortnight the Commons can then - using a Cooper-Boles approach - pass a law requesting extension.
Britain ending up with No Deal is not impossible. And indeed regular Parliamentary efforts to stop it might fail.
But Britain is definitely not going to end up with No Deal in the middle of an election campaign if a General Election is called before exit day.
But Britain is definitely not going to end up with No Deal in the middle of an election campaign if a General Election is called before exit day.
And here is the latest #BrexitDiagram that does NOT feature crashing out during a General Election campaign!
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