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Today PM reiterated: a million to one “exactly where I would put the odds” of No Deal, & “absolutely not” working assumption, as Cab minister in charge suggested in writing yday.
meanwhile PMOS said he’d meet EU leaders when backstop position changes, and no contact with Varadkar
meanwhile PMOS said he’d meet EU leaders when backstop position changes, and no contact with Varadkar
Game Theory argument for this approach - and El Erian below explains why it might work...
1. Commit credibly to No Deal - thru Cabinet appointments, spending
2. Try to isolate Dublin. Force its choice btwn backstop and November No Deal
3. Do better deal.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
1. Commit credibly to No Deal - thru Cabinet appointments, spending
2. Try to isolate Dublin. Force its choice btwn backstop and November No Deal
3. Do better deal.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
... but in order to send credible message on No Deal, PM needs to ramp up expectations of it, not play down.
This is because tens of thousands of small biz have not even taken most basic step in customs preparation because its a waste of working capital if No Deal not happening
This is because tens of thousands of small biz have not even taken most basic step in customs preparation because its a waste of working capital if No Deal not happening
rather high risk strategy however. if PM & Cabinet ramp up No Deal rhetoric, other businesses, currency markets & public at large will also react accordingly.
Hence what appear somewhat confusing & contradictory messages. No Deal both a million to one, and working assumption.
Hence what appear somewhat confusing & contradictory messages. No Deal both a million to one, and working assumption.
Gambit here is that Dublin when faced with the fundamental choice of certain No Deal in November or backstop seeking to avoid No Deal conditions in a few years time, will fold and advise EU to wind back backstop. Hence no contact with Taoiseach yet.
thing is, this all obvious from outside.
Also UK Govt have for 3 years made judgement that EU’s trade surplus with the UK will, when push comes to shove, matter more to it than internal coherence of single market/EU.
Not much evidence, but No 10 might argue yet to be tested...
Also UK Govt have for 3 years made judgement that EU’s trade surplus with the UK will, when push comes to shove, matter more to it than internal coherence of single market/EU.
Not much evidence, but No 10 might argue yet to be tested...
This is where I thought things might go if things hit a wall - but new Home Sec’s approach seems rather far away from this... there is a path here though.
