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The all-UK component of the backstop for the Irish border was a demand made by Theresa May that the EU only granted reluctantly.
Dublin would easily agree a time limit on the all-UK aspect of the backstop as long as the Northern Ireland only component stayed permanent.
Dublin would easily agree a time limit on the all-UK aspect of the backstop as long as the Northern Ireland only component stayed permanent.
If the chips were down and the UK parliament was faced between the choice of No Deal or the choice of a time limit on the all-UK aspect of the backstop I don't think the DUP could do much to save its version of the UK Union
A further EU concession to soften the blow for the DUP especially would be to combine the time limit for the all-UK aspect of the backstop with a prolonged Brexit transition where nothing changes in British everyday life through to the end of the next MFF EU budget cycle in 2027
Extending transition where the UK government can announce it is no longer a member of the EU now, but the UK stays aligned with the EU system for an entire budget cycle simplifies planning for businesses, state institutions and citizens while giving time to negotiate trade deals
Extending the transition to 2027 would give moderate Brexiters the joy of securing Brexit now while still giving Remainers hope that the UK could rejoin quickly if they eventually win out in accordance with the EU's accession regatta principle.
Avoiding No Deal with a long transition would stop dead the drift towards state paralysis and disorderly break-up of Britain as institutions get space to turn to internal UK reform. Yet there would still be just enough uncertainty for the SNP to pitch their goal in an orderly way
Transition to 2027 shafts the ERG and a time-limit to all-UK backstop shafts the DUP, giving Farage space to draw in Brexit ultras
But as Johnson will be accused of betrayal anyway when in No Deal chaos he ends up talking with the EU, we might as well get this done and over with
But as Johnson will be accused of betrayal anyway when in No Deal chaos he ends up talking with the EU, we might as well get this done and over with
Johnson has backed himself into a position where every form of contact with the EU will be construed by the ERG and Farageistes as betrayal of the "true" Brexit they love to talk of in the abstract. Even if it is to only short term agreements to handle No Deal.
May with jokes.
May with jokes.
But if the EU27 want to finally park the Brits outside of the EU so that British political chaos and instability does not put EU governance at risk there are ways in which it can open up the Withdrawal Agreement to give UK MPs a face-saving off ramp without touching EU red lines
For Boris Johnson there is no escaping the first rule of European politics:
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