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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
New: Lib Dems are a direct threat to the Tories at a snap election. Candidates tell me 2015 Tories, espec in the southwest, are moving to the LDs in droves. Meanwhile, I’m told up to 3 ex/current Tories will soon join the Lib Dems, starting with Wollaston. businessinsider.com/lib-dem-resurg…
But here’s a thing. A Lib Dem resurgence in a snap election takes seats from Tories - but also takes votes from Labour (Remainers) in Tory-Labour marginals. A strong LD showing *could* be a “blessing in disguise” for Johnson, YouGov’s @chriscurtis94 said. businessinsider.com/lib-dem-resurg…
How do Lib Dems & Remainers combat that? An alliance inc Labour MPs could work, maybe. Labour HQ will never sign off a formal pact *but* I’m told some pro-Remain Labour MPs are receptive to an informal arrangement. Talks ongoing. My weekend read 👇. businessinsider.com/lib-dem-resurg…
The Lib Dems are targeting Dominic Raab’s seat after research said they could win another 76 seats in a snap election, @michaelsavage reports. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
As I was saying... Shadow minister Clive Lewis urges Labour to back a Remain alliance thetimes.co.uk/article/labour…
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Exc: DEFRA officials this week told industry leaders that another food had been put on the list of things which could run out in a no-deal Brexit: liquid egg

"Every time I go to a meeting I find out something else," a figure who attended the meeting said businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit…
Liquid egg transported in bulk and sold to the UK food industry has a shelf-life of 2-3 days

Manufacturers use it to make a range of products

DEFRA this week told industry leaders it is being treated as a vulnerable food in the event of border delays

businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit…
A meeting attendee said DEFRA's advice was based on Yellowhammer findings, despite senior ministers describing the report as outdated

Labour's @SueHayman1: "This is yet another example of how a no deal Brexit would harm British food manufacturing" businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit…
Read 6 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Northern Ireland has been ignored, misunderstood, and let down by the UK government throughout the Brexit process, assembly members from across NI's political spectrum told me when I visited Belfast last week

businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
Stephen Farry, deputy leader of the Alliance party, said the alternative arrangements argument "misses the point" as it focuses on trade but doesn't address identity

"You have people creating overly-simplistic solutions"

businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
The SDLP's Claire Hanna said HMG's failure to grasp the complexities of NI was "really alarming"

She said Johnson would accept the backstop if it wasn't for the DUP

"... If you can be bought, you can be sold. And I have no doubt that the DUP will be"
businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
Read 4 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
While the PM was in Berlin, I went to NI to meet people whose businesses rely on the seamless border with the ROI

There I saw decades-old and family businesses, preparing to relocate, downsize, or be wiped out

My trip to County Down & County Armagh businessinsider.com/brexit-irish-b…
Michael runs a 4th-gen bakery in NI which has 2 shops in the ROI

He said tariffs will stop the bakery selling to EU supermarkets as it does now

He wants to stockpile bread but there are no warehouses available

“I honestly don’t know what the answer is" businessinsider.com/brexit-irish-b…
Arthur sells tractor parts from his NI base in Cullaville, a few hundred yards from the border

But 90% of his customers are in the ROI

New tariffs/checks will force him to move south after nearly 40 years in NI

"We would like to be left how we are" businessinsider.com/brexit-irish-b…
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Richard Smith
@richardavsmith
Here we go again. #startoftheline #summeroftrains2019 #es9150
You can find my journeys by train in Europe earlier this year here. #springoftrains

You've got to hand it to Eurostar: it takes a lot of self confidence and optimism to claim you have WiFi time and time again despite all evidence to the contrary. We could all learn a thing or two

(My first tweet was initially sent in London. It didn't make it up until Calais!)
Read 187 tweets
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Number Cruncher Politics UK
@NCPoliticsUK
NEW: We polled the #BreconandRadnorshire by-election:

LD 43 (+14)
CON 28 (-21)
BXP 20 (+20)
LAB 8 (-10)
MRLP 1 (+1)
UKIP 1 (=)

Fieldwork 10th-18th (changes on 2017 result)
ncpolitics.uk/2019/07/advant…
This represents a 17% swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems since 2017. Respondents were prompted with the names of all six candidates and parties on the ballot paper.
The polling was conducted online using a modified version of Number Cruncher’s national polling methodology. A technical note describing the methodology is available on the website.
ncpolitics.uk/2019/07/pollin…
Read 5 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
That's how you deal with that nonsense.
I've got some dates for you, would you like to know how your country is going to die?
The new Tory leader will be declared on Monday, July 22nd

Summer recess begins four days later, on Friday, July 25th

Parliament returns on Tuesday, September 3rd

The Brexit extension expires on October 31st

New European Commission November 1st
From these dates you can easily tell that we're never going to leave the European Union

Lots of reasons. It's a complex of all the reasons. The dates don't work, the circumstance doesn't add up, the votes aren't there. Add it all up and it just doesn't work.
Read 18 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Hi Twitter, we just released our new paper on Britain's 2019 EP election:

"Resurgent Remain and a Rebooted Revolt on the Right"

Download it direct from my website
matthewjgoodwin.org/academic.html

Best, Matt
Do follow @olhe @CaitlinMilazzo.
I can't persuade David Cutts to join Twitter
Findings:

Brexit Party didn't hurt Tories much, picked up 2014 UKIP vote
Lib Dems hit Tories hard
Leavers have turnout problem
Lib Dems not just a Remain backlash, more complex
Farage hurt Lab in left behind areas
Lab 2017 coalition eroding fast
No easy way out for Lab & Con now
It's now clear that one irony of sorts is ever since Britain voted to leave the EU its politics look more European -political fragmentation, polarisation, volatility, challenger parties doing better, a resurgent populism, those things EU member states grappling with we have too
Read 21 tweets
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Kevin Alcock
@kevina364
EUROPEAN ELECTION PREVIEW THREAD

So here we are a day from finding out the results of an election that should not be happening. It will be a strange election which will make it a lot of fun.
the Brexit Party and Lib Dems will do well, Lab and the Tories will do terribly, possibly historically so.(In the Tories case, definitely historically so)
The results will be about momentum going into the next phase of Brexit. There will be enough in them for both sides of the EU argument to claim things are going in their direction regardless of if it is true or not.
Read 37 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Democrats won The Ossoff Seat.
Here's how we rate the remaining uncalled races. In several of these, there are concessions but no official @ABC or AP call:
Solid D (>=95%)—CA-48, CA-49, WA-8
Likely D (~85%)—NM-2, UT-4
Lean D (~65%)—CA-10, CA-39
Tossup (~50%)—CA-45, ME-2, NJ-3
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R—MN-1, NC-9
Missed one: We're also rating TX-23, which has been called by some networks and not others, as Likely R.

Most likely, though, it will be the five in the middle, CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, ME-2 and NJ-3, that determine where we end up on the scale from D+35 to D+40.
Read 96 tweets

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