Thread by @Staedtler

That's how you deal with that nonsense.
I've got some dates for you, would you like to know how your country is going to die?

The new Tory leader will be declared on Monday, July 22nd

Summer recess begins four days later, on Friday, July 25th

Parliament returns on Tuesday, September 3rd

The Brexit extension expires on October 31st

New European Commission November 1st

From these dates you can easily tell that we're never going to leave the European Union

Lots of reasons. It's a complex of all the reasons. The dates don't work, the circumstance doesn't add up, the votes aren't there. Add it all up and it just doesn't work.

The first thing we know is that the Tories do not have the numbers to allow Brexit to happen by default. They just lost another MP yesterday.
We can't leave before October 31st, and they don't have the numbers to survive that long.

And here's the other side. Whatever policy they try to enact - and there are only two available - they have no mandate, nor the votes, to pursue it.
because it can't be no deal and it can't be May's deal - like you said.

You've just got to separate reality from the crap you see in English newspapers.

The reality is we're going to have to choose between no deal and no Brexit.

I know a lot of Englishmen have had huge psychological trouble with the idea of no Brexit. I know it's hard for them. Englishmen voted for Brexit, so Englishmen must have Brexit.
I know it's hard for them

But I'm afraid reality does not bend to the vanity of middle aged Englishmen who voted for more than they could chew. Life lessons, innit.

Parliament will block no deal. Europe has got no one to negotiate with, and the new Tory leader has got no viable policy and no governing majority.
It's a zombie parliament anyway, and you know this. It's incapable of action.

Either the new Tory leader loses a vote of confidence the next day, and we get an immediate general election with a campaign through August and polling day on September 5th.
Or it fails a Queen's speech, and we get one on October 3rd

And if we're getting a general election before the Brexit extension expires (which we obviously are) then Brexit is going to be decided by that election.

Not by this leadership campaign, and not by any of the idiotic faces filling the news at the moment.

I keep reminding you, English political journalism has the memory of a goldfish. However intensely they insist on something today, they can easily tell you the opposite tomorrow, and forget they said anything else.

It's just the nature of it, I suppose. All you have to do is remember that what they tell you today has no relation to what they told you yesterday, or what they might tell you tomorrow.

It doesn't mean political journalism is useless. It must have some purpose. But political journalism doesn't bear any relation to things that are actually going to happen.

What's going to happen is really very simple.

A minority government with no viable policy will be forced into a general election. And during that election at least one party we know of will have a manifesto for remain.

Nobody can stop that happening

In Scotland the SNP will campaign for another referendum. And in England the Lib Dems will campaign to stop Brexit.

While Tories, Labour and the Brexters squabble over the Brexit vote.

And you know what's going to happen. Nobody is going to end up with a majority out of that.

We'll end up with another coalition. If it involves the Lib Dems we'll get a second Brexit referendum.
If it involves the SNP as well, they'll get another independence referendum, which they're bound to win because of English behaviour this last four years.

Like you said, English political journalism is generally pretty crap. It's based on secret "access" instead of logic.
The English are this close at the moment to destroying their country, and nobody wants to address it.