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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Northern Ireland has been ignored, misunderstood, and let down by the UK government throughout the Brexit process, assembly members from across NI's political spectrum told me when I visited Belfast last week

businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
Stephen Farry, deputy leader of the Alliance party, said the alternative arrangements argument "misses the point" as it focuses on trade but doesn't address identity

"You have people creating overly-simplistic solutions"

businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
The SDLP's Claire Hanna said HMG's failure to grasp the complexities of NI was "really alarming"

She said Johnson would accept the backstop if it wasn't for the DUP

"... If you can be bought, you can be sold. And I have no doubt that the DUP will be"
businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
Steve Aiken, a senior figure in the Ulster Unionist Party, burst into laughter when I asked him how much he believed Johnson cared about Northern Ireland

"Boris only cares about NI because the backstop is the logjam"

Report from my trip to Stormont
businessinsider.com/brexit-norther…
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More from @adampayne26 see all

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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
3 take aways from #LDConf

1. The revoke policy is a gamble - while overwhelmingly backed by members, chatter in Bournemouth reveals concern over how it'll be received. Also worry that it could disrupt the Remain alliance by deterring potential partners.
businessinsider.com/3-things-we-le…
2. Party figures are bullish about a general election and have really raised expectations

Chuka Umunna's 200 seat claim might be OTT but the number of target seats has been doubled to 80

Sarah Wollaston told me they "certainly" should aim for 100+
businessinsider.com/3-things-we-le…
3. Defections have really boosted the party - increased media attention, members generally delighted (Berger received a standing ovation at a packed fringe yday)

But the Lee episode raises challenges which come with growth and serious Qs about the process businessinsider.com/3-things-we-le…
Read 3 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Justine Greening took a lot of persuasion - a phone call from Amber Rudd, I’m led to believe - to not quit the Tories earlier this year.
Allies of Sam Gyimah are not denying suggestions that he's soon going to be unveiled as a Lib Dem MP
Sam Gyimah has joined the Liberal Democrats
Read 6 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Yellowhammer is here... gov.uk/government/pub…
Yellowhammer on day 1 of no deal:

- 50-85% of HGVs "may not be ready" for French checks
- This could reduce flow of HGVS to 40-60% of current rate
- This might not improve by a "significant level" — 50-70% of current levels — for 3 mths
- HGVs could be delayed by 1.5-2.5 days
Yellowhammer on how no deal could impact food:

"Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease"

"will reduce availability & choice of products and will increase price... could impact vulnerable groups"

Panic buying could worsen food supply disruption

Xmas busiest time of yr
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what to make of @BorisJohnson comments on #Brexit and the Irish border?

My guess is that it is aimed more at Dublin than at Brussels....some thoughts. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson First, the content of what he is saying.

1. The Bill. He wants to attach strings about "when and how" the money is paid over.

This is old Brexiteer (@DavidDavisMP) thinking - the 'bill' as down payment on future, rather than EU view of settling debt /2
@BorisJohnson @DavidDavisMP It's a sensitive subject in Brussels, but I think it's about wanting to argue for a changed dynamic in phase 2.

Boris will argue he will 'tackle hard' in second half, but needs more than warm words. Needs to point to leverage. /3
Read 22 tweets
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
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BorderWarnings
@BorderWarnings
1~
18.04.2016
Theresa Villiers contradicts statements by Ahern, Hayes and Lawson.
irishnews.com/news/2016/04/1…
2~
Warnings from:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister
Peter Mandleson, former U.K. Northern Ireland secretary
Dermot Ahern, Former Irish Foreign Minister
Conor Patterson, CEO Newry and Mourne Co-operative and Enterprise Agency
politico.eu/article/northe…
3~
12.05.2016
FW Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister:
"The very moment that the U.K. leaves, we'll have a border again between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That has at least the potential to ignite a conflict that apparently has become totally calm."
politico.eu/article/juncke…
Read 92 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
1/ There was a time last summer when it looked like the UK Government was taking #Brexit half seriously. They published a slew of papers. OK, much of what was in them was vague, but something was happening. There was effort 💪
2/ Since then everything has slowed... yet the ⏰ now ticks towards the half way point in the #Article50 process. 🤷‍♂️
3/ I tried to sum this up in a blog post yesterday I entitled "Brexit: the UK Government is not even trying" jonworth.eu/brexit-uk-gove… But while it is OK to analyse a problem, I struggle to see what to do about it, short term.
Read 15 tweets

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