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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The government now wants a deal with lower level playing field obligations than in the Withdrawal Agreement - given it’s not pursuing a Customs Union. That’s all very interesting, but one point is missing from this debate (1/2)
Time. We are less than 12 weeks away from B-day. Let’s not pretend you can negotiate an FTA from scratch - getting the necessary mandate, consulting with stakeholders, negotiate, get it through the UK and the EU Parliament (both need to agree) in that time...
... particularly if you have not even made any textual proposals. The government wants to leave without a deal. And as I’ve written before, that is a decision that follows the political logic.
I do not like political logic.
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
The number of reports on the coming showdown between government and parliament raise important constitutional issues (thread)
For outsiders the UK has always been an example of a system with an impressively powerful parliament. But then, the government in turn has larger powers over that parliament (and traditionally a majority in it which makes it difficult to decide who actually has the power).
Brexit clearly is a significant “constitutional moment”. Who yields the power? An all-powerful parliament? An imperial government?
I took the term imperial government from the US, where the strong executive is discussed in these terms. It is a bad fit for the UK given the past.
Read 5 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
This report is factually entirely wrong. The FCO has been doing this for years. With some excellent trade experts. Want to give credit to a government for it? It’s due to the May government.
I have tweeted this correction out some hours ago, but it was an angry tweet, because the civil servants deserve credit - they haven’t dragged their feet on this one at all. And I don’t like my angry tweets.
There’s a thread to be done about the weird tendency of journalistic stories to pretend that everything is different with a new government. ‘For the first time the U.K. promotes its trade’. That’s entirely wrong, of course.
Read 5 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
The special relationship between the UK and the US at times leaves the awkward feeling that the UK makes a lot of commitments - and the US, not necessarily. So far I count two big UK concessions: 1) Huawei (see here) and (1/2)
2) Iran. The UK co-negotiated the Iran deal and wants to protect it. Bolton seems to want to escalate the Iran conflict. May refused to be part of that, refused to join the US Hormuz mission, opted for a European one and got commitments from France and Germany... (2/3)
The new government abandoned that plan, joined the US in Hormuz - which France and Germany refused to do, fearing an escalation of the conflict. (3/3)
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Kingsley Moghalu
@MoghaluKingsley
thecrestng.com/2019/08/13/foo…

Is @cenbank now a ministry to be “directed” by President @MBuhari ? Article 1(3) of the CBN Act 2007 states “In order to facilitate the achievement of its mandate under this Act...the Bank shall be an independent body in the discharge of its functions.”/
The issue here isn’t whether or not CBN should allow access to forex for food imports. It is about whether such an economic policy of a central bank should be imposed by a political authority. A major reason for our poverty, instability and weak economy is weak institutions./
Our marketplace should be regulated and guided in a rational manner that creates a level playing field. Our economy will not be saved by Ad Hoc political decisions like this, handed down by the very institutions that should be shielded from the whim and caprice of politicians.
Read 5 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
I thought/hoped it would die away, but it's become headline news—the favourite to be UK PM wants to use it …

So here are answers to frequently & rarely asked questions about GATT Art24.

1. General
2. With-deal leavers
3. No-deal leavers
4. Remainers/revokers *SURPRISE*

1 /21 Screenshot. Text of GATT Art24, paragraph 5 (link in later tweet)
1. IN GENERAL

a. DOES GATT COVER SERVICES?

No. GATT only deals with trade in goods.

If you only talk about GATT Art24, you are excluding any agreement in services.

The equivalent is GATS Art 5

wto.org/english/docs_e…

2 /21 Screenshot of GATS Article 5 paragraphs 1 and 4
b. START WITH GATT ART1 (some do, many don’t) — non-discrimination between trading partners.

If UK allows imports duty-free from EU, it must do the same “immediately” for all other WTO members, except …

(“contracting parties” now = WTO members)

3 /21

wto.org/english/docs_e… Screenshot of GATT Article 1 (MFN)
Read 22 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. With the looming threat of electoral oblivion for the Tories there is zero chance of an agreement between May and Labour on the withdrawal agreement and she can't entertain a customs union so that process is dead in the water.
2. So it looks like May is going to have to got to parliament again with pretty much the same deal with a mangled political declaration if it's even changed at all. This is where MPs need to get a grip - but they won't.
3. They don't want a no deal Brexit, and by October there is no possibility of extending, and since they cannot force May to revoke, which isn't going to happen, unless they've ratifies the WA then we are almost certain to leave without a deal.
Read 18 tweets
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
Brexit: 1/ all eight options were rejected - but the Customs Union and the Second Referendum are in touching distance. We're a parliamentary democracy and if May - 149 votes down - can have a second chance, so should these...
2/ The prime minister has no authority, has signalled she'll soon be gone. Parliament should now take permanent control of the agenda, with MPs consulting their constituents over the top three options...
3/ If after Monday, May has no majority for the Withdrawal Agreement, and there is no majority for Customs Union, we need an election. The election is cast as a distraction by the #FBPE crowd but there is literally no support even for EEA membership in this parliament...
Read 5 tweets
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Henry Newman
@HenryNewman
One of the strange things about the Brexit debate at the moment is the persistence of certain idées fixes about the PM's Brexit deal & its alternatives which are repeated by critics

Here's a Sunday afternoon mythbusting thread

👇

A)
Myth 1 - the deal isn't Brexit

This is often repeated; yet it is simply preposterous

Deal would take us out EU - no commissioner, no MEPs, no compulsory financial contributions (once exit bill settled), no voting rights, basically out EU legal order

It literally is Brexit

B)
Myth 2 - this deal would mean BRINO or staying in Single Market

Again this is total rubbish

The deal takes us definitively out the Single Market.

Even in the backstop, we would be free of practically all Single Market rules & could end free movement & diverge on services

C)
Read 22 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There may be a draft Withdrawal Agreement, but there is not yet certainty about the Brexit outcome. Which is a nice cue for saying there's still a need for the Brexit Probability tracker, especially if, like @ChrisMasonBBC, you don't have the foggiest idea what will happen next
Well, we now put a deal at 60%, though we can't quite work out how to describe it in the blind Brexit / Customs union spectrum, so split between them. But no deal becomes less likely, just 15%. If deal is voted down, EEA and referendum are higher possibilities
And the story of the last few months really is how nobody with an alternative to a deal has really sustained a strong case - though the referendum and EEA supporters have done a lot better than the no-deal supporters
Read 3 tweets

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