Thread by @ThimontJack

Latest @instituteforgov report looks at what could happen in Parliament when MPs return from summer recess. Depending on the PMs approach, MPs could have limited opportunities to influence the #Brexit process

Short thread on key findings👇

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If Johnson does renegotiate a deal, there isn't much time to pass it. He would need to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (to implement the deal in UK law) through Parliament before ratification. If conference recess is scheduled as normal, only 22 sitting days 3 Sept-31 Oct

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If Johnson presses ahead with no deal then we know MPs will do all they can to stop it. Voting against principle of no deal -or disrupting govt legislative programme -cant stop it alone. MPs may try to pass leg forcing govt to act (either request A50 extension or revoke A50)

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But it will be harder for MPs to find opportunities to take control of Commons order paper to pass legislation than it was for MPs earlier this year when TM was trying to pass a deal

We identify three ways they could try:

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1) amend emergency debate motions under SO24
2) amend the 'neutral motions' required under the recent NI (Exec Formation) Act
3) amend an FTPA no confidence motion - or a business motion allowing for a longer no confidence debate

All would need Speaker to allow amdts...

5/

MPs may also try a no confidence vote under FTPA - but as has been discussed at great length recently, we havent tested the 14-day period which would be triggered if Johnson lost & theres no guarantee Johnson would resign to make way for an alternative govt

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Johnson could decide to initiate a general election himself to break parliamentary deadlock, but v little time to hold one before 31 Oct. Holding an election which runs over 31 Oct deadline would cause huge challenges for civil servants & ministers

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All Brexit options are still on the table: deal, no deal, extension or revocation of A50 which makes events in the autumn v v difficult to predict

But if you're wondering what *could* happen, read our report (@jl_owen @DrHannahWhite) here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/p…

/ends