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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Forget the headline, focus on the substance of new trade barriers for UK exporters in no-deal Brexit. These are barriers, therefore costs, that none of their European competitors will face.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Free Trade Agreements reduce barriers / costs but do not eliminate them. Hence why replacing membership of a single market of 30 countries with a network of such agreements is overall trade restrictive
Ok, it isn't all about the trade as we know, but it is quite a sight to see self proclaimed pro-free market thinktanks argue for more trade restrictiveness in the case of the UK. The same of course happened with some in the US when Trump tore up Republican free trade policies
In both US and UK the justification is that the current trade situation isn't really free trade. Indeed there are protections in both US and EU on agriculture. But increasing protectionism doesn't seem an obvious way to support free trade.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Could there be a quick UK-US trade deal? Given that neither Government is overly concerned about traditional trade policy, international institutions, or pursuing the best long-term economic interests of their country, yes. (extract from... uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa… )
A good summary here of some of the issues from a US publication, in which I'm among the talking heads. Perhaps worth also adding that a UK-US trade deal to move the UK from the EU regulatory system is an ideological aim of leaders on both sides csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2…
Concluding trade agreements for non-economic reasons is not that unusual, not least given the limited economic benefit of trade deals. In this circumstance very important that business, consumers etc with interests know these and communicate them clearly and publicly.
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Battle lines pretty clearly drawn. No-deal Brexit from the Government (there's no realistic deal they can agree with the EU). Or the probable but not definite majority of MPs who oppose this force an extension. In both cases a general election follows.
If there's an extension followed by an election, the election is de facto a Brexit referendum. An election following a no-deal Brexit likely to be very challenging for Labour / Lib Dems amid mutual recrimination on failing to stop no-deal.
Chances are September Parliament tries to show a majority view against no-deal. But October is when we see whether there are really the votes to prevent it happening. Very hard to predict that right now either way.
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This offer goes further than could have been expected from Corbyn in being an offer that is time limited, and in finally committing the Labour Party to another referendum - though any election will already be a referendum.
Whether the probable majority of MPs opposed to no-deal will coalesce behind this or something similar we wait to see. I still suspect that other methods will be tried to stop no-deal in September, and a potential unity Government left for October
Also think that the Government provided this opportunity to Hammond and now Corbyn by being so obviously unreasonable in demands to the EU, rather than sounding even vaguely statesmanlike (even if insincere). End of the Johnson honeymoon?
Read 4 tweets

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As the UK pores over the government's no-deal notices, let's have a look at how all of this is seen on the EU side.

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