Thread by @johnpmcdermott

I spent last week in Zimbabwe. It was my fourth trip in a year. The mood was the darkest I had encountered so far, and for good reason. We’ll have a piece up soon but a brief thread. (1/13)

I felt the atmosphere was summed up by this quote from a local businessman. “I can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. Just the light from the incoming train.” (2/13)

There is a lack of basics. Mains electricity was running for six hours a day, at night. Factories were shut during the day, only opening for night shifts. (3/13)

Clean tap water running once a week. There were community-run boreholes but many I visited had long queues. (4/13)

Fuel was as ever scarce. The traffic in Harare was noticeably lighter than on previous visits. Petrol stations either empty or with long queues. Huge queues for kombi taxis or for subsidised ZUPCO buses in the CBD. (5/13)

According to the World Food Programme there may be 7.5m people, roughly half the country, struggling to get one meal per day by early next year. Last week the UN and the government launched a humanitarian appeal. (6/13)

The government blames drought and Cylone Idai for these problems. Obviously neither has helped. But at root these crises are the responsibility of those in power and cannot be separated from the broader economic problems. (7/13)

These haven’t changed. Liquidity crisis dating back from the electronic money creation without backing at the end of the Mugabe era. Universal exasperation with a government that keeps stealing, crippling industry, and says one thing on Monday and does another on Tuesday. (8/13)

Widespread lack of trust. Not enough Zimbabweans trust the local currency to be a store of value. Not enough trust their government when they make announcements. And the outside world doesn’t trust Mnangagwa to deliver on his reform promises, so it won’t bail him out. (9/13)

The government has in effect been running a cack-handed IMF austerity programme. On the fiscal side it has raised taxes and it has (at least until the mid-year budget statement) cut spending. But it hasn’t stopped interfering on the monetary side... (10/13)

... and it's doing the IMF-ish austerity programme without any financial help. This was always a tall order but has been made impossible by the lack of progress on political reform. Last year Western diplomats optimistic. Now they are all resigned and disengaged. (11/13)

What happens now? No one talking now of Zimbabwe “open for business”. Some speculating that there might be a collapse (whatever that means). For now the median view is a grim, muddling through, with everyone getting poorer but too scared of the regime to do much else. (12/13)

All eyes are now on tomorrow’s march, called by the opposition MDC Alliance. Understandable concern, given the nature of the regime, that it will crack down. Human rights groups reporting intimidation of activists in the lead up. (13/13).

Here's our piece this week -- Zimbabwe is facing its worst economic crisis in a decade. economist.com/middle-east-an…