Thread by @atatimelikethis

So. Let's have a detailed look at how much of a con "no deal" really is.
We will think about this from a Leaver's prepective.

Laws
Borders
Money
Independence

Do we really take back control of these? Or is it an ERG con? The appearance of Brexit that helps only the very rich?

Q1. Does "No Deal" give us more control over our LAWS.

Answer 1.

Categorically not. It gives us no more ability to set UK laws than we had as part of the EU the previous day...

Our ability to set British law before and after no deal is 100% identifical.

So what does change?
Almost overnight our ability to work together with neighbouring nations is diminished.

If we want common standards on diesel fumes, help with cross border drugs, prevention of people trafficking, it's possible but arduous

There is one other thing though...

No deal gives us a one time chance to ditch shared directives that we previously wanted to be part of.

How about the European Tax Avoidance directive? We hated tax avoiders until very recently.

Yet you'll see no plans to add this to British Law or prevent it with our neighbours

Odd, don't you think?

The politicians have proclaimed No Deal a huge sacrifice, independence won through the spirit of the blitz.

Yet nothing changes. Unless you happen to be a rich elite or their friend and want to avoid taxes on offshore funds.

Who could benefit we wonder?

Q2. Does "No Deal" give us more control over our borders?

Answer
No. It's makes things more bureaucratic, adds red tape, adds cost and definitely some chaos.

And for all the mess we don't gain control, we lose it.

We'll have to look at each issue to explain why.

The world operates within Trade blocks. These happen to have come about since the EU but they're actually a world wide thing.

Our local trading block is of course the EU, and our economy is designed around shared procedures. After no deal that will be exactly the same.

One thing changes. We will lose control of the rules of that block moving to become exactly what some leavers have warned about - a vassal state.

Remember the warnings about moving from rule maker to rule taker? No Deal is the best way to achieve that.

But why is that?

The world changed. Countries use shared trade rules for the same reason they have compatible mobile phone networks. To make life simpler

You don't make rules, you join a Trading block and use theirs. We designed the EU rules to be right for us and our economy

Some politicians want to do a deal with the US to operate under their rules. Or we could do the same with China.

But what they don't admit is we would then become just the same vassal state, except now of the US or China. Do you think Congress will give us a seat in the house?

What any country, even the 5th largest economy, can no longer do is create their own trade rules.

It would be like inventing a new language and insisting everyone else used it. And it would take decades.

So instead we choose which alternative we want - 🇱🇷 or 🇨🇳

And in making this choice we also choose not to have any say in the rules.

We could eventually operate under US trading rules. Who voted to operate US Meat and Livestock rules anyway? Who voted for NHS privatisation (as Trump argued for) Or for true cost prescriptions?

Unfortunately even if you want that, no deal makes you EU Vassal in the meantime. It will take decades to change.

How long for farmers to adopt US livestock transportation rules? How many farmers would refuse?

Now apply that to all industries. Using US rules written for them

Ok but we've solved the customs border? Northern Ireland? The backstop?

No, no and no. All we've done is hidden them and given up control.

As we explained. We use the rules of our trade block. That means NO Deal defacto keeps us in the customs union, without control.

Northern Ireland is solved. But it's solved because we remain in a defacto customs union.

And the backstop goes away because it was only an issue if we joined the rules of a different trade block.

But we have control over immigration?

It seems likely no deal does kill single market but even brexiter politicians aren't happy with that leaving single market adds red tape and cost.

Are we out of freedom of movement? Controlling unfettered immigration? Nope. Here's why.

1. EU migrants are a tiny amount these days. So small we don't police them anyway.

2. To stop EU migration it means border controls and visas both ways. We don't want that, not least for our horribly treated pensioners.

Maybe some countries will get visas. It'll be a fig leaf.

Ok, but we can do trade deals. At last that can change?

Which trade deals? We have excellent trade deals already with everyone.

For the US, Sector by sector means we'll repackage the 30+ deals we have with the EU. (surprised no one told you?)

So maybe the planet gets a new country? Or the civil service we've all been bashing can suddenly negotiate better deals than the largest trading block in the world?

Even then, you know we're still subject to the Europe trade block. Those theoretical deals will be on EU terms.

Ok seriously WTF. Why are we doing this?

We ask this all the time. There is one benefit. To get that you have to be a paid up lobbyist for US companies. Then no deal looks great. The UK as vassal state with no leverage?

Easy, lovely picking. Do we know any of those?

Q3. So Does "No Deal" give us more control over our money?

A3. Of course not. Policiticians never admit they're wrong so expect them to try to argue we have control over the famous payments to Brussels.

What they've actually done is spend more money and tried to hide it

So it's true. That hated payment will no longer go to Brussels. Instead, it'll fall right into higher shopping and extra business costs.

In the old days politicians used to use this inflation bluff to create money all the time. We thought we'd learned their tricks in the UK

Q4. Are we independent?

We've been struggling to answer this, because everyone's definition is different.

So instead we think the following is true, objectively.

Whatever your definition was of independence before "No Deal", you definitely have less of it afterwards.

Ridiculous, even if we leave the EU it just adds cost and complexity and takes away control?

No not quite.
1. It's how you left the EU. NO DEAL ensures you keep all the reasons you had for leaving.

2. You'll have helped the moneymen - tax avoidance and US lobbyists

You're a remainer elite tying to trick us.

We knew you'd react like that and we're so sorry. DON'T believe us. Everything in this thread can be verified in 30 minutes online.

Then please ask who sold you the idea that No Deal = Brexit.

We think it was the elites in the ERG.

Well then we're screwed, trapped, we'll never be independent.

Not entirely true.

Believe it or not some Remainers have some empathy with what you want. Some even want to leave the EU. Some want stronger immigration controls.

They've even figured out how brexit could be done

They're not at all in the majority of Remainers of course, and they won't give you easy answers because the road would be long and hard.

And they wouldn't start from here.

Their first question would be which trade block should we ally with?

And the rest would follow.

Are we done now?

No. Sorry. One more thing. No Deal is gonna cause a hell of a mess.

They haven't admitted they've done some deals on this side to try to make it less harmful.

But it's still going to be nasty. Why would we let this happen just to help the ERG and friends?

One thing remainers. try to understand leavers.

When someone is ready to sacrifice themselves for a cause, telling them the sacrifice is huge encourages them.

The tragedy for decent Brexiters isnt that no deal is chaos. It's that it results in the EU having more control of us.

Just for fun. If you've read this, who is actually responsible not for brexit but for a No Deal that leaves us as a Vassal State with less independence?