Thread by @pmdfoster

Am stunned off my sun lounger by this @BorisJohnson letter to @eucopresident on the irish backstop. It’s based on a big fat fallacy - that the Irish border issue can be fixed by unilateral commitments or good intentions 1/quick thread

google.com/url?q=https://…

It starts by setting out why the backstop is bad (familiar reasons) and then suggests that the EU bins it (familiar) in the basis that both sides try fix up the “alternative arrangements” by the end of the shortened transition. /2

And yet (as the next para implies) this is pretty unlikely to happen since (see multiple threads passim) they don’t exist and won’t for the foreseeable given All-UK commitment to diverge.

At which point, the U.K. says “trust us”. /3

We’ll “look at what commitments might help”!!!?

So not a mutually agreed EU-U.K. treaty, with governance mechanisms to protect both sides.

Just “trust us”. Seriously?/4

This is not serious negotiation.

It is utter nonsense dressed up to deceive a casual reader that the U.K. is serious.

Don’t be fooled by spurious offer for a “legal commitments” to have no infrastructure “at” the border.

The basic question remains... /5

If all the U.K. is leaving EU customs union and single market then HOW is the UK going to avoid a return to borders of the past??

Trust us? After 2 solid years of failing to come up with operable solutions...mmm, my guess (wild stab in dark) is the EU will say “no”. /7

Recall that it was the 1992 Single European Act (UK joint single market) that made invisible border possible.

If you are leaving those mechanism you need to say how it will work without them...if you are ruling out trade border in Irish Sea /8

It’s totally spurious to say GFA isn’t about customs etc.

A trade border of this kind (given U.K. wish to diverge etc) is the effective economic repartition of Ireland. Don’t expect nationalist communities to help in this. /9

So what does this letter really tell us?

That the U.K. is not serious about a renegotiation here.

Indeed all the strategy is - led by Cummings himself - about how to lead a sham negotiation, per three sources privy to the chat. /10

How will the EU react? And Dublin?

Badly I suspect. Recall @theresa_may OpEd article ahead of the Salzburg summit in autumn 2018.

That went down well, as I recall. /10

As one on EU side puts it.

Not so much megaphone diplomacy.

Just the megaphone. /12

If Tory backbenchers were asking themselves if this administration was actively interested in getting a deal, this letter should give them the answer.

Not. At least not on this “trust me” basis...its not how serious countries make agreements. /13 ENDS

Two apologies.

1. It was 1986 Single European Act that created single market

2. Apologies erratic numbering and typos. Holiday WiFi.