Four arms depots of pro-Iranian militias blowing up in Iraq are no coincidence, but probably a well-designed, well-performed campaign
4️⃣ interesting questions and 🆎bottom lines:
1/6
4️⃣ interesting questions and 🆎bottom lines:
1/6
1️⃣ What is happening?
Weapons stockpiles are exploding, spewing munitions in every which way. Rumors of airstrikes, but no proof. No responsibility claimed of what looks like covert operations: noisy results but no signature, below detection or conclusive attribution.
2/6
Weapons stockpiles are exploding, spewing munitions in every which way. Rumors of airstrikes, but no proof. No responsibility claimed of what looks like covert operations: noisy results but no signature, below detection or conclusive attribution.
2/6
2️⃣ Who loses?
Iran and its supporters in Iraq, the unfortunate innocent Iraqi population, the Government of Iraq appearing unable to protect its sovereignty, and perhaps the U.S. which is worried about the safety of its forces in the region.
3/6
Iran and its supporters in Iraq, the unfortunate innocent Iraqi population, the Government of Iraq appearing unable to protect its sovereignty, and perhaps the U.S. which is worried about the safety of its forces in the region.
3/6
3️⃣ Who gains?
Israel and KSA threatened from Iran and its proxies? The U.S. which is in the midst of a strategic conflict with Iran but is careful not to use force? Anti-Iranian forces in Iraq, including Shiites, that want to limit the militias influence.
4/6
Israel and KSA threatened from Iran and its proxies? The U.S. which is in the midst of a strategic conflict with Iran but is careful not to use force? Anti-Iranian forces in Iraq, including Shiites, that want to limit the militias influence.
4/6
4️⃣ What’s next?
Iraq: Not blaming Israel, demands the U.S.-activity to preapprove.
U.S: Continues with “max pressure” on Iran
🇮🇷: “Strategic Patience”: ongoing buildup of armed proxies and influence in Iraq and in the rest of ME
🇮🇱: PM dropping hints as a pre-election stunt.
Iraq: Not blaming Israel, demands the U.S.-activity to preapprove.
U.S: Continues with “max pressure” on Iran
🇮🇷: “Strategic Patience”: ongoing buildup of armed proxies and influence in Iraq and in the rest of ME
🇮🇱: PM dropping hints as a pre-election stunt.
Bottom lines:
🅰️ The campaign between wars MABAM continues and it will be judged by its strategic effects vs. its costs. Ongoing escalation control is vital.
🅱️ The toughest challenge, which is the Iran precision missile project, is concentrated more in Lebanon than in Iraq.
6/6
🅰️ The campaign between wars MABAM continues and it will be judged by its strategic effects vs. its costs. Ongoing escalation control is vital.
🅱️ The toughest challenge, which is the Iran precision missile project, is concentrated more in Lebanon than in Iraq.
6/6
