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One quick jobs day thread: if the jobs numbers have felt more volatile this year....that's because they have been 
Looking at variation in month-to-month job numbers, volatility was quite low in 2017 and 2018. The variation was similar to what we saw in 2013 and 2014. But this year has looked more like 2015 and 2016, when the volatility increased.
Numbers throughout are for January to July of each year, to be consistent with 2019. Volatility is measured with a standard deviation.
One factor to consider is that the initial job growth numbers get revised. And when we look at the volatility in just the first estimates of job growth, which is what we are all used to seeing on jobs day, 2019 looks even more volatile.
What does this increase in volatility mean for the labor market? In general, volatility tends to go up when the economic situation is more uncertain/changing. So partly the volatility means....volatility.
But also we should keep it in mind that this expansion has actually been relatively unvolatile. In the past two expansions, the typical variation in month-to-month job growth was much higher than it has been this time.
In times of volatility, it’s even more important to not get caught up in the month-to-month swings. Remember: right now we’re in a period of reasonable, but not spectacular job growth. And as long as the general trend doesn’t head downward...we’re ok.
Full post here: bit.ly/2lxWIbU
