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Question is also what “to get something done” could mean. Putin wants to control Ukraine, and uses the Donbas for that purpose. No sign that this has changed.
Risk indeed that Macron - rather naive with regard to Russia as his speech to French ambassadors has demonstrated - encourages Putin to be even more assertive while at the same time destroying Western unity which has held since 2014.
Macron, who looks at the world through the lense of power politics, wants to bring Russia closer to Europe, and overcoming the Ukraine conflict is the way to achieve this. Given his grandiose geopolitical ambitions, he may accept any “deal” Putin proposes. /3
Instead of solving anything his initiative could make things much worse: Putin may sense weakness he might want to explore. Wrong signals to the Kremlin aren’t in the European interest - a firm and principled position is. /4
Western unity was key in helping Ukraine stop Russian advances in Donbas. Putin was surprised by Western unity and firmness. Ever since Putin has tried to undermine Western unity. Risk is that Macron plays his game, encouraged by a Trump who also wants softer line re Russia. /5
Architects of the joint Western response that included support for Ukraine, economic sanctions and a new deterrence initiative through Nato were Merkel and Obama together with Macron. Now Merkel left with US and French counterparts who both want to align closer with Russia. /6
Both aligned in goal to bring Russia back to G7/8 which they see as a forum of great power politics, not an instrument of forging Western unity against anti-liberal autocratic challengers of the “free and open” international order. /7
Both Macron and Trump want to change the status quo re Russia and both appear to think that Russia ready to be a constructive partner. Macron now making the first move by trying to unpack Ukraine policy. /8
Question is whether this quickly leads nowhere or whether Putin, with his vast experience in playing games with ambitious Western leaders, will pretend to tango, by appearing ready to compromise, which in turn might encourage Macron to double down. /9
