Thread by @InsidePeloton96

Welcome to the business end of this year’s race. #PreviewTime.

Stage 18: Colmenar Viejo > Becerril (178km)

From crosswind chaos to high mountain madness, the GC riders are straight back into the firing line tomorrow.

But who'll be pulling the trigger?

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THREAD👇

Who’d have thought today’s stage, with no categorised climbs in sight, would turn into one of the most crucial stages of this year’s race! Perhaps that’s what made it so entertaining, that and the wild Movistar tactics 😉

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Anyway, tomorrow we head back into the mountains, a stage with no less than four Cat 1 climbs on the menu. Now Movistar have smelt blood, will they try and punish Roglic some more?

You bet they will – the question is where are they going to do it?

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Somewhere along this 178km-long route, I'd guess 😉.

Let's now take a look at it...

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We’re in the heart of the Guadarrama mountains tomorrow, where the riders will be able to gaze south and see Madrid.

The end of this race is still quite far away however, with a few more lumpy kilometres between here and the finish.

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Tomorrow's stage kicks off with a 20km pan flat section, a fast run up to the first climb of the day. This flat section is on a classic Spanish superhighway, which means it’s hella exposed!

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If the winds blow like they did today, who knows what carnage we could get – more on that later 😉

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After this fast flat section, we start climbing the Cat 1 Puerto de Navacerrada (south side).

This is a climb of two halves, a shallower, tamer first 10km followed by a gruelling 9km slog to the summit.

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The length of this climb is going to be a decisive factor tomorrow, especially for the riders still suffering from today’s exploits.

If a team hit this one at pace and continue to drill it into the steeper second half, then they’ll blow the race apart.

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You might think launching such a move with 150km still to go is crazy, but if there’s one thing we’ve learnt about one team in this race...

*cough* Movistar *cough*

...it’s that they’re bloody crazy. This is where we might see them try and isolate Roglic.

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Once we summit this first climb we don’t descend straight away. Instead we hit a plateau section of around 7km.

Any gaps that have been created on the climb can be further extended on this section, especially if one team continues to push the pace.

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After 7km on this plateau we then hit the descent – finally, some respite for those riders already feeling the hurt!

It’s a relatively simple descent too, with very few tight corners, wide roads and what looks like a perfectly smooth road surface.

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Once we hit the base of this descent we start climbing again, this time up the Puerto de la Morcuera (north side). This is another Cat 1 climb, but nowhere near as tough as the first climb.

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The ramps are consistent for the first 8km, averaging around 7%. In the last 4km they start to undulate a little, with some flatter sections thrown in.

If any moves are going to go on this climb, then they’re going to have to launch from the base.

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The riders may want to take some notes as they head up this climb, in just 50 kilometres time they’ll be descending it – this time at much faster speeds…

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There’s no energy-sapping plateau to deal with at the top of the Puerto de la Morcuera, instead we plummet straight down the other side of the mountain via a very fast-looking descent.

It’s a long one too, around 20km down into the town of Guadalix de la Sierra

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Again it’s a very simple descent, with a lot of long straight sections and very few tight bends or corners to negotiate.

Certainly not the kind of descent to create gaps on.

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Once we hit the base we do a little loop down to the town of Soto del Real before making our way back up to climb the descent we just flew down.

Let’s hope that the grupetto have made it down before the front of the race start climbing, or we could be in store...

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...for one very interesting logistics problem.

Nothing the Vuelta hasn't had to deal with in the past, I suppose.

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The southern approach up the Puerto de la Morcuera is a lot harder than the northern side, averaging 5.3% for 15.3km.

It’s the latter half of this one that’s the hardest – with the gradients ramping up to around 7.5% average.

There’s also a kilometre of 9-10% between 4km and 3km from the summit.

This section comes around 60km from the finish, could someone be minded to attack here? Perhaps joining up with some domestiques in a breakaway out front?

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Once we get to the summit we fly down a very familiar looking descent to Rascafria where we’ll then blitz a 4km section of flat before starting the fourth and final climb of the day – the northern side of the Puerto de Navacerrada.

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It’s very similar to the southern side, with a tamer first half followed by a harder and more consistent second half.

The gradients never climb above 8% in this harder second half however, so it’s really going to suit...

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...those climbers who can hold a strong rhythm, rather than those who love to skip away on steep gradients.

Like all the climbs tomorrow, it’s a test of endurance, rather than of raw climbing talent.

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Conserving energy is therefore crucial, so you’ll want a team of domestiques around you all day to do most of the heavy lifting.

If you get isolated early on then you’re going to get punished. It doesn’t matter how strong...

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...a climber you are by the final climb, if you’re already deep in the red, you’re going to crack. And crack big time.

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There’s no sudden descent down the other side to regain your energy on either, we hit that 7km plateau yet again – further punishing those riders who have been dropped on the climb.

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Only after this plateau do we then reach the descent. It’s another long one, around 15km.

It’s simple too, with most of it arrow straight. This is going to make for a very fast run in to the finish!

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At 4km to go we reach the bottom of this descent and take a sweeping right hand turn into the final rise. It’s a nasty little drag, considering the amount of climbing we’ll have done already by this point.

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It only averages 2.8%, but in the mid-section it does ramp up to around 4-5%. It’s an ideal puncheurs finish, but at the end of a long mountain stage will there be any puncheurs left to spring away from the pack?

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Probably not, this is one for those GC men with an explosive kick – Roglic, Valverde, even Pogacar.

This is the view 100m from the finish – wide and pan flat. If we’ve got a small group arriving together this is perfect for an 'all across the road' sprint.

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Now before we dive into the tactics let’s have a quick #WeatherWatch! After what happened today this is a part of the #PreviewTime that you won’t want to skip!

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The temperatures have been climbing slowly the past week, and tomorrow we’re back up to high numbers – around 26-28 for the majority of the day.

There’s also zero chance of rain, good news for a day with A LOT of descending kilometres.

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The wind is blowing again however – maybe not as hard as it did today, but it’s still quite significant, around 12-14mph all day.

These winds are coming from the NEE, which is very bad news for those riders who were hoping for a calm start to the stage.

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The winds will hit the first 20km-long flat section as a direct tailwind.

Those kinds of wind on this wide open and exposed superhighway are going to cause carnage, especially if Movistar want to up the pace again and wear down Jumbo.

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On that note, let’s start the juicy part of this #PreviewTime – the tactics!

Crosswinds at the start are going to play havoc on the race, especially with Movistar now having smelt blood with the crosswind chaos that ensured today.

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That said, will Jumbo be caught out again by such a move?

You’d hope not, but there’s not much you can do to stop a team flying to the front and then proceeding to put you in the gutter.

The only way to defend against this is to do the same to them.

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So whoever picks it up from the start tomorrow, one thing is certain, we’re going to get a very fast first half hour!

This is really bad news for those riders still feeling the hurt from today, there are still 150km and four Cat 1 climbs before the finish…

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Ahhh, just read back the last series of tweets and realised I said 'direct tailwind', forgive me, I meant 'direct crosswind'.

Boy it's been a long day.

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Right, back to the tactics.

The first climb is going to be very interesting tactics wise. Movistar will want to try and isolate Roglic as soon as possible, and Astana will be looking to do the same with Pogacar.

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Will they try and push the pace here? Or rather flood the break with domestiques? It all depends on what the race looks like after the first crosswind section.

If it’s in pieces, then they’ll continue the high pace, if not then they’re going to flood the break...

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...and force Jumbo onto the defensive.

The next two climbs probably won’t see much section – they’re not tough enough nor close enough to the finish to catalyse any real drama.

The big moves will come on the final climb.

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This is where we’ll see Quintana and Lopez launch their moves, attempting to gap Roglic and join up with their domestiques in the break ahead.

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Quintana – I believe – is still just a foil for Valverde, so Movistar will sooner play the Quintana card to weaken Roglic, than launch Valverde.

Once Roglic is weakened, they'll then attack with Valverde - hitting him with the Movistar sucker punch!

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All that rests on how much Quintana has left however.

He really went deep today and I doubt he'll have much energy left to commit to such a move.

Or maybe he'll just have another big breakfast and decide tomorrow's a 'race day', you never know with Nairoman.

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Due to the simple nature of the final descent, the gaps need to be made on the climb itself, and then maintained on the flat plateau. This is where teammates will be vital!

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Now comes the question of who’s got the legs? Well, despite Movistar’s efforts to tire out Jumbo today it looked as though the majority of that team were spat out early and then proceeded to coast to the finish. In fact, Movistar may have shot themselves...

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...in the foot slightly by expending a lot of energy in their own efforts.

Astana also used up a lot of firepower today, as did UAE.

This is going to cost both teams tomorrow, making it easier for Jumbo to defend Roglic’s lead.

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All they need to do is ensure Bennett, Kuss and Gesink arrive at the final climb alongside Roglic. A wise move from them would be putting a satellite rider in the break, just...

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...in case any action does kick off on the final climb.

Having a rider ahead of you, even if it’s just to swap wheels during an unfortunate mechanical, is vital – especially at this stage of the race.

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So, what about the breakaway chances? It’s a tough one really, and all depends on how the first 20km are going to be raced.

If it’s flat out and we have gaps before the first climb, then I think a break are going to really struggle as the pace...

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...will probably stay high all day.

If we get to the first climb without any fractures in the group, then I think we’ll see a large move go – one with domestiques in, as well as a handful of stage hunters.

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In this scenario I can imagine a breakaway making it to the finish, especially if Jumbo ride a solid tempo and Movistar wait for the final climb to enact their master plan.

But who am I touting for such a breakaway?

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Bouchard
Higuita
Soler
Nieve
Chaves
Latour
Frankiny
De la Cruz

There are obviously going to be some more names making the move, but these are the guys that I could see going on to win tomorrow’s stage from such a break.

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Now, onto the final predictions!

Stage winner? I’m going to go for Tadej Pogacar to complete his hattrick.

He’s on incredible form and won’t struggle to follow the big GC moves that go on the final climb. He’s also quite nifty in the sprint...

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...and will love the slightly uphill finish, should it come down to a small group at the end.

GC Predictions!

>Roglic and Jumbo orchestrate a perfect defence and remain rock solid in red.

>Quintana falls off the provisional podium all together.

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>Valverde attempts a number of moves on the final climb but is repeatedly shut down by Roglic.

>Lopez tries and fails to distance Pogacar, but finishes with the main GC group to climb back into 4th.

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So, correct me if I'm wrong here Will, but are you suggesting Movistar's antics today will - ultimately - amount to absolutely nothing.

Yes. Yes I am.

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Sad as that may be, and while I would love the race to explode at the hands of Nairoman and Movistar, I just don't think it's going to.

Roglic and Jumbo look way too strong.

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And that folks, is me done for the evening!

Wow, Madrid is so close now, just three more #PreviewTime posts left! 😱

As ever, if you've enjoyed tonight's post then please, drop us a RT on the first tweet in the thread - it helps a bunch!

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Ciao everyone! 😘👋