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So after saying an early election is impossible to predict, that's exactly what I'm now going to do. That's job description unfortunately.. Short thread with some initial thoughts 1/ 
We can debate how likely a deal is - differences in views on Sherpa circuit vs Bxl/institutions; how large substantive gap is between UK & EU; when formal proposals will likely emerge & what can/can't be done at Council + of course, whether @BorisJohnson can build majority 2/
But deal can't be basecase. Time too short. Too many hurdles. I think odds have gone up, just - say from 15 to 20%. Near-term risk of no deal also fallen in light of A50 extension legislation - say from 30 to 20%. That leaves 60% early election. Will it clarify anything? 3/
Seems not. Accept that A LOT can/will change between now & election day but for now we think 2 most likely election outcomes are: 1) hung parliament (neither Tories nor Labour command a majority); or 2) Tory majority. The first scenario gives rise to a further three scenarios 4/
1) Labour minority; 2) Tory minority or 3) deadlock (& probs another election). Each of these also has multiple permutations & complications. For eg even if Labour has fewer MPs than Tories, it may have a better chance of forming a Govt because of its potential partners 5/
Bottom line (after much initial work with pollsters + 3000 words of analysis?) Rather than clarify, election could reinforce #Brexit uncertainty. Poss pol outcomes suggest lots options will remain on table: no deal; Canada; CU/amended version of May’s deal; 2nd ref; Remain ENDS
