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Interesting, blue skies thinking by Pete. After meets in Bxl, where is EU now? As I wrote pre-Biarritz, @BorisJohnson did have positive impact in Berlin & Paris. That encouraged small movement on EU side - some tactical, also genuine. Seems to have now been undone by Frost 1/
As one senior EU official says, BJ showed "determination to get a deal done. That's why Merkel moved. If UK wanted a serious, substantive relationship, it would have been easier to allow something on Island of Ireland that wasn't bullet proof. One leak on dike would have been OK"
But @DavidGHFrost seems to have "undercut" the "good impression" Johnson left. Key issue is LPF. Govt argument is not that EU shouldn't expect it in all sectors, but that it won't apply in *any* sector. Yikes. Market access will only be commensurate with LPF provisions 3/
This doesn't mean EU window for a deal is closed. I pushed hard on this. But Frost has again fostered scepticism about any possible movement. UK political context over last few days reinforces this scepticism. As UK slides towards election, process & negotiations "will freeze" 4/
MS (& @EU_Commission) of course have concerns about UK's "disaggregated" backstop. But wrong to suggest new ideas aren't, however informally, being tested. They are. They aren't liked. They're undoing goodwill @BorisJohnson secured in August 5/
On extension, EU will agree. *Key* issue will be timing. As one senior EU official says "Macron will have to argue for a short extension. Not least as his view from the last Council has been validated." Question being pondered: why allow for extension much beyond the election? 6/
So extension yes, but to 31 Jan a lot less clear. Not suggesting this a firm EU view as of yet, but "this will be the discussion point" says one adviser to an EU Head of State. So UK has gone backwards in EU's eyes from mid-Aug. Bigger reason for that is policy, then politics END
