Thread by @unseen1_unseen

Many people are saying that Pelosi will not bring USMCA to the floor for a vote because she doesn't want to give Trump a "win". However, IMO, if she doesn't bring it to the floor; she gives Trump not only a big win but also a major campaign issue to run on. It's a catch 22

By not bringing it to the floor, Pelosi and the dems take ownership of NAFTA. NAFTA is hated in the Midwest. She will put every house seat in the Midwest at risk if she doesn't bring USMCA to the floor. Not bringing it to the floor would be a great political win for Trump.

This reminds me of the Kavannaugh hearings. The best course of action for the dems would have been to quickly confirm Kavanaugh and hope their base forgot in a week or two (which they would have). Instead, they used fake smears and it hurt them in the midterms (esp in the senate)

Pelosi would be playing right into Trump's hands politically if she doesn't bring USMCA for a vote. Her moderates want to vote for it. They know running on NAFTA isn't a good thing in places like WI, MI, PA. Pelosi understands this. Trump will bury them with this in the campaign.

Giving Trump NAFTA and illegal immigration to run on in 2020 is like a gift from the heavens.

If USMCA is passed, Trump will simply have a bullet point accomplishment that he fixed NAFTA. Much like the other great accomplishments he can state. The list gets a little longer.

In the grand scheme of all his other accomplishments...passing USMCA will get kind of lost in the shuffle. However, having Pelosi hold up USMCA and having NAFTA be the law of the land; well, that gives Trump a clear issue to run on and to bash the dem house in the Midwest.

rally after rally....ad after ad on how the dems are keeping NAFTA and costing the rust belt their jobs....how farmers are being harmed by the dems...It's the "gift" that keeps on giving. Pelosi knows this. It's why she is trying to craft some narrative to hold it up..but..

...so far she has nothing that will give her political cover. Yes, she doesn't want to give Trump a "win" but she will either way. Trump has once again pushed the dems into a no-win situation. They can give Trump a win on USMCA or take the big risk of losing the house races

...in the middle of the country. Can they really have one more issue where it's clear they are against the working folks? Trump won 2016 on trade issues, on illegal immigration, on building the wall, on picking judges, on rebuilding the military, lowering energy prices, economy

and other issues. The Dems going to the left of these issues that were the reasons for the voters giving Trump their vote will do nothing but confim the voters were correct to not trust the dems....ALL dems... The dems will have to defend from this all campaign..for what?

Do the dems really want to defend NAFTA on every house race in most of the country, just so they don't give Trump a "win". Sure, it's possible but from a political POV...It's a very stupid risky political act that really gets them nothing and could cost them everything.