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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
New #BrexitDiagram V21

Builds on the version earlier today - @DanielAtkinson7 helpfully pointed out some routes I was missing

Pannick's summing up has influenced this version, as has @DinahRoseQC's view of the Supreme Court Case, and @euro_jonathan on emergency legislation
The accumulative effect of all these changes - other than making the diagram more complex(!) - is for chances of a Deal or No Deal, and Revoke, to edge down a little, and a GE edges up a little more.

But keep the suggestions coming people!
The excellent suggestion to make different versions of the diagram for each Supreme Court outcome from @BenedictWesson will have to wait for tomorrow... out of time tonight.

As ever high resolution PNG and PDF files, the XML and ODS are all here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
As a result of a series of questions I keep getting about #BrexitDiagram I have now written a blog post about why I make these diagrams, and how they might be useful:
jonworth.eu/the-enduring-v…
In short: what the options *are* and the order of those options, is more important than the odds on the nodes.

That means that it's possible for me to work out what is important - I can then safely avoid having to interpret the latest words from Barclay or Juncker.
While the probabilities necessarily involve a fair amount of educated guessing, it is still I think a useful process - and the second series predicted a Brexit Delay and that's what happened

The current series predicts a General Election... and we're almost there I think
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So @BenedictWesson suggested to me I ought to make #BrexitDiagram versions for each #UKSupremeCourt possible outcome

I have now done that, adapting V21 of the diagram accordingly

The results are *fascinating*
tl;dr - if prorogation is justiciable, then this
First the original V21, with some minor amendments to the graphics

This has a .7 chance prorogation is justiciable, .3 that it is not

This gives outcomes:
2% - No Deal 31 Oct
4% - Revoke
2% - Brexit with Deal
86% - General Election
6% - #PeoplesVote
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Today’s case in the Supreme Court might end Johnson’s time as Prime Minister. Even if it doesn’t, that the case is even happening is a result of a series of errors and gaffes.

At every turn Johnson has gone for the dangerous, hardline option rather than the conciliatory route.
During the Tory leadership election he did not need to be as hardline on Brexit as he was. He was darling of the party *anyway*.

He did not need to commit to leaving by 31 October at all costs.
When assembling his cabinet he did not need to purge his opponents so completely - removing Jeremy Hunt was a bad call.

An olive branch could have been offered to Hammond, Gauke, Clark but was not.
Read 13 tweets

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Charles
@cjs3872
Earlier today, I got pointed to some information that suggests, while President Trump hijacked the GOP in 2016, Trump appears to have been the engine that gave the GOP what they've wanted since the 1930s. Domination through Wall Street and firearms makers.
Seems that after FDR was first elected in 1932 and took office in 1933, the GOP attempted a coup through Wall Street companies and the military, which included Remington Arms, but Maj. Gen Smedley Butler blew the whistle on that.

timeline.com/business-plot-…
Among those he named as part of the plot were Prescott Bush, the father of one future president and the grandfather of another, Al Smith, the 1928 Democratic nominee who now has a dinner in his honor, DuPont, and even the company that built the Hoover Dam near Las Vegas.
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW:
Britain’s biggest charitable funder of science, Wellcome Trust, writes to new PM, praise his promise of thriving science sector, says No Deal is “a threat to that”. Chair, ex MI5 chief Eliza Manningham Buller letter to PM said Brexit already damaging scientist recruitment...
Lady Manningham Buller told the BBC that Wellcome’s billion pound a year funding for science in the UK reflected fact UK already “a science superpower” but “anxious” that status “on the wane” from “rupture” with European collaboration. Said funding & immigration policy vital...
She also said there were some post Brexit opportunities to shape global regulation of new technologies such as Artifical Inteligence and genomic medicine... but she pointed out the 50 per cent fall in apps from EU to study at Sanger Institute in Cambridge
Read 8 tweets
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Time4U2Know
@Time4U2Know
💥NEW #VKProof💥
Read the #JFKJr post(pic1)earlier today when posted. Immediately thought clues. Specially with follow up post @ 11:48a. Then he made “.” post(pic2)to my #VKProof tweet @ 5:09p. The “.” has served as a ping or MorseCode for “E”
Reading QPost 2816(pic1)posted @ 5:43p, 2 words jumped out. Singly was misspelled on purpose. Should be Singl(e). Also noticed County needs to add “R”. That was addressed in QPost 2817(pic2).
As we have learned from QPost 831 Misspellings matter.
#VincentKennedy timeline:
1)Post @ 11:48a Letters Play Tricks
2)Post “.” (e) @ 5:09p
3)QPost misspelled Singly 5:43p

Another connection, IMO
#KeepWinning #VincentKennedy
Read 4 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
Read 11 tweets

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