Thread by @jonworth

So @BenedictWesson suggested to me I ought to make #BrexitDiagram versions for each #UKSupremeCourt possible outcome

I have now done that, adapting V21 of the diagram accordingly

The results are *fascinating*

tl;dr - if prorogation is justiciable, then this

First the original V21, with some minor amendments to the graphics

This has a .7 chance prorogation is justiciable, .3 that it is not

This gives outcomes:
2% - No Deal 31 Oct
4% - Revoke
2% - Brexit with Deal
86% - General Election
6% - #PeoplesVote

Hidden in there is an important interim step though - who is the Prime Minister who will go to the European Council on 17 October?

The standard V21 puts this:
41% Johnson
59% Not Johnson

Then the V21 where prorogation is NON JUSTICIABLE

Outcomes:
6% - No Deal 31 Oct
8% - Revoke
3% - Brexit with Deal
81% - General Election
2% - #PeoplesVote

PM 17 Oct:
76% Johnson
24% Not Johnson

Then the V21 where prorogation IS JUSTICIABLE

Outcomes:
1% - No Deal 31 Oct
3% - Revoke
1% - Brexit with Deal
88% - General Election
7% - #PeoplesVote

PM 17 Oct:
26% Johnson
74% Not Johnson

Overall impact on Brexit outcomes - in summary

NON JUSTICIABLE has a small impact on making No Deal, Revoke and Deal more likely, & a massive impact keeping Johnson longer as PM

JUSTICIABLE makes No Deal, Revoke and Deal less likely, & probably ends Johnson's time as PM sooner

As ever the high res .PNG and .PDF files, plus the XML and - importantly for this version - the .ODS files for the probabilities are here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Comment, feedback, critique very welcome! That's what @benedictwesson did - and look what we learned!

/ends