Thread by @jonworth

As a result of a series of questions I keep getting about #BrexitDiagram I have now written a blog post about why I make these diagrams, and how they might be useful:
jonworth.eu/the-enduring-v…

In short: what the options *are* and the order of those options, is more important than the odds on the nodes.

That means that it's possible for me to work out what is important - I can then safely avoid having to interpret the latest words from Barclay or Juncker.

While the probabilities necessarily involve a fair amount of educated guessing, it is still I think a useful process - and the second series predicted a Brexit Delay and that's what happened

The current series predicts a General Election... and we're almost there I think

Plus - sorry to be blunt - what *else* have you actually got to try to assess the whole picture?

You can try to do this based on hearsay and leaks or gut feeling (and there is *plenty* of that on Twitter!)

Or pay an expensive risk consultancy to do something like this for you.

I am not sure I am right. The diagrams evolve, and dozens of people have helped me improve them. And I still think they are useful, and the process to make them is useful.

/ends