Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Ukraine scandal: per the WSJ, “Trump in a July phone call repeatedly pressured the President of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden’s son…urging Volodymyr Zelensky about eight times to work with Rudy Giuliani on a probe”.

.@RadioFreeTom argued that the “most important revelation” of the WSJ story is that Trump “sought the help of a foreign government against an American citizen who might challenge him for his office”. If this is true, Trump “should be impeached & removed from office immediately”.

Nichols continued, “if this in itself is not impeachable, then the concept has no meaning. Trump’s grubby commandeering of the Presidency’s fearsome and nearly uncheckable powers in foreign policy for his own ends is a gross abuse of power”.

Nichols continued, “the story may even be worse than we know. If Trump tried to use military aid to Ukraine as leverage, as reporters are now investigating, then he held Ukrainian and American security hostage to his political vendettas”.

Israeli Elections: per @natansachs, “the results yielded no clear path to a governing coalition”, but that in itself signals the “the end of Netanyahu’s unchecked reign”, and the rejection of some of Netanhayu’s most dangerous ideas.

Sachs continued, these results scuttle Netanyahu’s plans to (i) “officially apply Israeli law to parts of the West Bank, annexing the Jordan Valley” and (ii) “to curtail the Israeli Supreme Court’s powers in order to secure himself immunity from prosecution on corruption charges”

But, noted Shlomo Ben-Ami, “this election is no victory for the Israeli peace camp…whatever government emerges will not resuscitate the all-but-dead two-state solution, and will most likely launch a massive military campaign against Hamas in Gaza”.

Iran-Saudi Crisis: US SecDef Mark Esper has announced a “moderate deployment” of troops and military equipment to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Esper called the deployment “defensive in nature and primarily focused on air and missile defense”.

Per @ElbridgeColby, this response “sounds exactly right”. But, stepping back, Colby also argued that the US needs to find ways to manage Iran without out losing focus on the main event: China in Asia followed by Russia in Europe. Iran is not a “near-peer” competitor.

Similarly, @ashleytownshend argued that the US’ “focus on the Middle East is sucking resources & bandwidth away from our strategic priorities” – like countering China in the Indo-Pacific. Further, it’s distorting allied priorities and strategic deployments.

Three thought-provoking articles:

Gary Sick argued that The Global War on Terror “has operated from the start on the unspoken assumption that the enemy—usually scattered and primitive—was unable to strike back effectively”. Now, with cheap drones, the “era of one way pain” may be coming to an end.

He continued, “others can [now] raise the cost of U.S. policies in ways we had not previously anticipated. Unfortunately, the answers to such challenges tend to be military escalation & …investment in expensive countermeasures”. Both “have dangerous consequences”.

.@sbg1 argued that “Trump is now on his fourth national-security adviser, the most ever for a President in his first term, but, even with [new appointee, Robert] O’Brien, he is no closer to finding one who agrees with his worldview”.

Glasser continued, “judging from quick studies of his writings and public pronouncements, O’Brien is not a bring-the-troops-home-and-pull-up-the-drawbridge America Firster. He is a classic, conventional Republican hawk with a pro-military bent, [a] ‘Bolton lite’”.

.@HalBrands argued that the “great power gurus” were better at predicting China’s disruptive rise than the “China hands” -i.e. those with deep knowledge of international relations made better predictions than those with deep specialist knowledge of China.

What those “great power gurus” understood was that China was likely to be disruptive as: (i) a country’s interests grow with its capabilities (ii) rising states often seek to reshape the international system & (iii) strong autocracies & democracies generally struggle to get along

But, Brands argued, although “the China hands’ reputations have taken a beating”, they’re now needed more than ever: the great power gurus can’t provide the details of exactly how China’s “ambitions will manifest”. For that, the mandarin speaking experts are needed.

Three events to watch in the near future:

UN General Assembly: per Stratfor, the UNGA “provides a convenient forum for bilateral meetings”. And Iran will be a “centrepiece issue”: the Iranians will meet with European & Asian leaders, while the US “will be using the summit to marshal global support against Iran”.

Other issues to track at the UNGA include: (i) Trump’s meeting with Ukranian President Zelensky (ii) possible meetings on the Japan-South Korea trade war & (iii) the possible announcement of a US-India trade deal (iv) a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of “The Quad”.

70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China: on Oct 1, Xi will give a speech to mark the occasion. But, per Minxin Pei, “despite Xi’s apparent confidence & optimism, the [CCP]’s rank & file are increasingly concerned about the regime’s future prospects – with good reason”.

Per Pei, headwinds the CCP faces include (i) a persistent economic slowdown (ii) rising tensions with the United States (iii) Xi’s shift towards “fear-based strongman rule” – which increases the risks of the CCP making “catastrophic policy mistakes”.

Canadian Election Campaign: @Justin_Ling argued that “Trudeau won’t wash off his blackface scandal”. The emergence of several, separate, images of Trudeau dressed in blackface “taint a prime minister who painted himself as a liberal savior”.

Ling continued, Trudeau had “framed the election as a do-or-die decision between himself and those looking to take Canada ‘backward’—on women’s rights, on LGBTQ rights, and on the rights of minorities & immigrants”. Now that seems “not only hollow but outright hypocritical”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors