Bwah. I'm writing a piece on this attack - and why it's taken governments months to confirm the details - right now.
A couple of details below: /Thread
A couple of details below: /Thread
In the early morning hours 19 May, rumour spread among humanitarians, diplomats and local Syrian reporters that Assad regime forces had once again employed chemical weapons in battle - this time against fighting positions along a remote front line near the town of Kbanah. /2
Kbanah is a crucial but remote front line in the hills of Latakia. Syrian government forces had been struggling to advance in the area for weeks - suffering high losses (and indeed have yet to progress). Rebels have dug into tunnels, trenches and interlocking positions /3
According to witness testimony, around 6:15am government forces in the area launched a large barrage of improvised rocket artillery (so-called IRAM) against rebel positions. Among the roughly 40 conventional munitions that impacted were at least three shells carrying Chlorine. /4
Witnesses describe large yellow-ish plumes emanating from the impact site. The shells ruptured but did not explode (consistent with chemical munitions). Bystanders report suffering breathing difficulties, tiredness, loss of balance. They also noted a strong smell of Chlorine. /5
Soon after, four victims (all males, fighters for the Jihadist Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham) are brought to an area hospital. First responders decontaminate the victims, diagnose symptoms and begin to treat. See below the summary report of the local Idlib health directorate. /6 
First responders of the Syrian Civil Defense ("White Helmets") respond directly to the hospital. Trained in securing evidence, they collect blood, saliva, urine, cloth samples, as well as witness testimony from the victims (whose identity remains protected) and the physicians. /7
The responding physician confirms the diagnosis as well as the pungent Chlorine smell. They secure samples and conduct a quick spot-test on a device measuring Methane and Chlorine residue, contact OPCW investigators and arrange a handover of samples and witness testimony. /8
Soon after, images of the munition remnants and victims began circulating among diplomats and experts. I pasted three such photos below, showing an improvised munition with a 107mm rocket motor. The angle of the photos did not allow for geolocation (beyond soil matching). /9
Experienced Syria watchers will immediately recognize build. It's a common variant of the so-called "Golan" rocket used by the government forced both in a conventional high explosive as well as in a chemical configuration carrying Chlorine. See @Arms_Research figure below: /10
@Arms_Research For a detailed analysis of the munition type, read the full @Arms_Research report (academia.edu/37650988/Impro…). Suffice to say we've seen these before in and around Damascus (2017-2018). See below one munition recovered from Douma in January 2018. Again, the same motors too. /11
@Arms_Research These IRAMs builds are commonly associated with a Syrian government formation called the 4th Armored Division - under command of Bashar's brother Maher Al-Assad. The basic "Golan" design is a clone of a common IRGC militia IRAM design (left Chlorine bomb, right Hezb missile) /12
@Arms_Research As we discuss in our report on the patterns of Syrian regime chemical weapons use (gppi.net/media/GPPi_Sch…), these munitions types are closely associated with specific formations and where they fight. We dont usually see these types of rockets in the Northwest around Kabanah. /13
@Arms_Research Just like we did not see yellow cannister Chlorine barrel bombs (like ones in the infamous Douma attack last year) around Damascus - until the so-called "Tiger Forces" and their barrel bomb-dropping helicopters deploy to the area in the spring of 2018 (see chart below). /14
@Arms_Research So if these IRAMs with Iranian motors suddenly start dropping in a remote corner of Latakia, we go looking for 4th Armored Division rocket artillery units deployed near Kabana in the May offensive.
Et voila: /15
Et voila: /15
@Arms_Research Awwwight. So we start to have a bunch of pieces of evidence: We have surviving victims showing symptoms consistent with Chlorine exposure, corresponding medical assessments, a range of samples, witness testimony and munitions remnants consistent with past patterns of use. /16
@Arms_Research The following Tuesday, two days after the attack, the State Department issues a statement that they are indeed investigating a potential attack. The US and allies had previously warned that a repeat use of chemical weapons would trigger swift response /17 nytimes.com/2019/05/21/wor…
@Arms_Research But the situation was complex. The United States was confident in its intelligence picture, but Europeans were less convinced. The military situation in the area and the involvement of a designated terrorist group made independent collection and verification a challenge. /18
@Arms_Research Additionally, reports of four injured men - no fatalities - were unlikely to spur global outrage. Indeed most journalists (with some exceptions) barely bothered to investigate the incident at all. And thus all went quiet, awaiting the outcome investigations behind the scenes. /19
@Arms_Research Now it appears, the United States has finished that assessment and concluded that the regime did indeed use weaponized Chlorine in Kabana on 19 May of this year. Pompeo says the attack will “not go unchallenged.” What's an appropriate response? Whew that'll be another thread. /20
@Arms_Research PS: If you want to understand how and why the Syrian government has used these weapons throughout the war, I recommend you check out our extensive report: "Nowhere to Hide - The Logic of Chemical Weapons Use in Syria": gppi.net/2019/02/17/the…
@Arms_Research PSS: You can also read back some of the coverage. @holliesmckay was among the first to follow up on the reports and interview the treating physician: foxnews.com/world/syrian-d…
@Arms_Research @holliesmckay Finally, the @snhr with their extensive network of local sources was among the first to issue a quick report on the incident, including maps and testimony: sn4hr.org/wp-content/pdf…
