Thread by @InsidePeloton96

The one we’ve all been waiting for. #PreviewTime

Elite Men’s Road Race: Leeds > Harrogate (285km)

Yorkshire, a land that favours the brave and the bold. Today it was AVV who took the race by the scruff of the neck, who’s going to do it tomorrow?

#Yorkshire2019🌈🇬🇧

THREAD👇

I think it would be fair to say that the Yorkshire Worlds have so far been a resounding success! Yes, we’ve had some biblical rain, and yes, there have been a fair few dodgy decisions, but overall there’s been edge-of-your-seat action in each and every event!

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Maybe I’m biased.

After all, it’s not every day the world’s best riders descend on your home roads to fight for the rainbow bands…

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Anyways, enough of the hyperbole, this is #PreviewTime, not #ReviewTime 😉.

So, with that in mind, let’s have a look at what lies in store for the men tomorrow!

*Spoiler: it’s brutal.

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The world’s are renowned for their mammoth distances and fatiguing elevation gains and this Yorkshire course is no different! In fact, it’s the longest Elite Men’s course we’ve had in 43 years!

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I think it’s therefore fair to say that none of the riders in the current peloton have ever participated in a longer, World Road Race event.

*Quickly checks Valverde’s stats…

Yep, that would be correct!

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Such a mammoth distance is going to have a huge effect on the outcome of the race – expect the classics specialists to really come to the fore once we pass that all important 200km marker.

But what kind of parcours do we have before that point?

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Well, we’ve got a lovely handful of hills for the riders to stretch their legs over – lovely to watch that is; riding up these will be grim, especially at race pace.

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First up we have Cray Hill, which starts to climb around 63km into the race.

It’s the easiest climb of the day and being so early in the race, I can’t imagine anyone kicking the proverbial shit bucket over here.

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Nevertheless, it’s still a tough little bugger in its own right and shouldn’t be taken lightly by anyone – just look at that profile!

3.4km at 4.7% doesn’t tell the full story with this climb, it hides a brutal 13% section right at the tippy top.

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After this steep section we then fly down into West Burton and join a long, lumpy and winding road to the next climb of the day – Buttertubs pass.

This 30km-long undulating section looks quite flat on paper, but it’s anything but.

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Like all the roads around Yorkshire it’s up and down all the way. It won’t push any riders into the red, but it will slowly add to the ever-growing feeling of fatigue – who’ll feel the pinch first?

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Buttertubs Pass is a climb many in the current peloton will be familiar with, especially for those who’ve ridden the Tour de Yorkshire in recent years. It’s a hallmark climb for this region and rightly so, it’s stunning!

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It’s also devilishly difficult, 5km long with an average grade of 5.4% and max gradients nudging on 18%!

These steep ramps come near the base, blast up these and through the nick and you’re then onto the ‘easier’ drag to the summit.

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As Yorkshire descents go, the one down from Buttertubs is quite tame, but with some high winds and biblical rain thrown in, it’s going to be just as treacherous as some of the dicier descents.

Both hands on the handlebars lads!

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After this descent we’ve then got another lumpy valley section to take us to the third and ‘final’ big climb of the day – Grinton Moor.

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This is another climb with a spattering of leg-breaking ramps in the early stages, riders slapped with 14% and 12% kickers before the halfway point of the climb. After they’ve crested these steep kickers, the second half is quite manageable.

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It is on top of the moors though, and if any of you have been walking around the Yorkshire moors at this time of year before, you’ll know that the weather can be bloody brutal!

The picture below shows just how exposed it is right here.

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After Grinton Moor we then fly south east towards Harrogate and the finishing circuit. A lot of these roads are the same one that the women rode over today, so they’ll be fresh in a lot of your memories!

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With around 100km left to race we enter Harrogate and begin the first of 8 lump lamps around the town centre.

These are the exact same laps we saw the Elite Women race over today, as well as all the U23s and Juniors...

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...so those of you who have been tuning in all week should know it like the back of your hand right now!

For those of you still a little rusty however, here’s a profile of the finishing circuit in all of its undulating glory.

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In short, this circuit is brutal, designed to catalyse the most attritional race possible.

With 8 laps of it to complete, there’s no way in hell we’re going to see a large group come to the finish – this is one for a solo rider or smaller, reduced group.

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There are multiple points to launch explosive attacks from, the most popular being the 200m-long section of 10% at the base of Penny Pot Lane/Cornwall Rd. The riders hit this after a short downhill section and sweeping left hand bend.

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Whoever can take a risk through this bend and fly through with a ton of speed could come out the other side in a great position to launch a flying attack. Those further back in the group will need to be weary of an attack launching off the front here.

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This is the most obvious attack point on the circuit, but I also think the drag on Otley Road is suitable for an explosive kick too.

The elastic can snap quite quickly here, especially on the last couple of laps.

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Just one strong acceleration could be enough to send a rider backwards and make this tame, 4% section feel like a Pyrenean wall!

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If we do have a bunch coming to the finish for a reduced sprint, things could get quite spicey, especially in the final kilometre. With around 800m to go we fly round this left hand bend, this’ll give riders a lot of speed onto Crescent Road.

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Most of this speed will then be scrubbed off as they take the right hand turn onto Parliament Street where the gradients really kick up.

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There’s still 500m to go by this point, starting your sprint this far out would be ludicrous, best to sit in and psych out the competition.

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The gradients lessen nearer the finish, but they’re still ever so slightly uphill. Timing will be everything in this sprint, too soon and you’ll fade metres from the finish, too late and you won’t be able to make up the ground.

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After 285km this isn’t going to come down to who’s the strongest sprinter in the group, it’ll come down to whoever can dig the deepest.

Savvy riders will take every opportunity to save energy tomorrow, knowing they might just need it for the final sprint.

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This kind of savvy riding is what wins World titles.

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Right, so with the route covered, let’s have a quick #WeatherWatch before we chat tactics and the big favourites!

Uh oh, the rain is back. And it’s returned with a vengeance. The worst weather of the entire week is forecasted for tomorrow 🥴

🌧️🌧️🌧️

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We’ve even been issued a yellow warning for rain in the Yorkshire Dales area, which means we could see flooding in some areas.

We’ve also got some high winds predicted, especially around lunchtime with sustained speeds of around 15mph and gusts of up to 30mph.

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These winds are coming from the NE, meaning they’ll hit as a cross-tail from Grinton to the outskirts of Harrogate.

I can’t see them having a massive effect on the race on the flattish run towards Harrogate, but they could certainly cause fireworks...

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...on the second half of the Grinton Moor climb.
If the winds whip up like they’re forecasted to, the race will break apart here.

The road is narrow and exposed, making it incredibly difficult to find shelter.

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If the lead riders head for the gutter, those behind will be hit directly with the wind - spitting them out the back quicker than a Yorkshireman can say “Gi’us a croggy”.

Prize for whoever can translate that one 😉.

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We’re still quite far from the finish here, but that won’t stop a massive chunk of the peloton being sent home from an early bath. If one of the favourites is caught napping here it could be race over!

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Overall, the conditions look pretty dire all day tomorrow. There will be no hiding from the weather, whoever wins the stripes in Harrogate will have to face Mother Nature head on and beat her.

That’s a pretty hard task, who’s up for it?

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Before we discuss favourites, let’s have a quick section on tactics!

Now, I could go on forever about these and 9 times out of 10, be completely wrong. So I’ll try and keep it brief…mainly so none of you can complain when the opposite inevitably happens!

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The Belgians hold most of the cards going into tomorrow’s race, with multiple opportunities to well and truly shuffle the deck.

What they don’t have, however, is the trump card. The Dutchies have that one in MVDP.

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Unfortunately for them, he’s their only viable play. With only one move to play, it’s not going to be too difficult to predict their every move – after all, they’re setting this all up for a reduced sprint finish for Van der Poel, right?

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With the favourite in their camp, many nations are going to look to them to do a lot of the early work, and to be fair their team is more than strong enough to shoulder a lot of this.

They can’t be bluffed into doing too much however...

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...for the French, Belgians, Spanish and Italians all have exceptional teams here and will pounce the moment Van der Poel starts to get isolated.

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Like in the women’s race today, I think we’re going to see a few nations try to break the race up before we even get to Harrogate – shed a lot of the dead weight before we get to the tricky finishing circuits.

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The best way to do this is to launch attack after attack on the early climbs. All the top nations have 2-3 riders that will be very dangerous going from distance.

Whenever a Belgian rider goes, Spain, France and Italy will all follow with a rider of their own.

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I can see the Netherlands, Australia and, to some extent, Germany, being the teams that inevitably end up chasing these moves.

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Grinton Moor is going to be the danger zone. This is where the Belgians will really shine – Wellens, Evenepoel, Lampaert or Teuns – I can see anyone of these guys launching on the exposed moorland section.

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This’ll be followed by a number of other big name riders and if it’s not reeled back in quickly, it may just slip away from the peloton.

Any gap over a minute at this point – even though it’s still 150km from the finish – is hella dangerous.

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Once we’re on the circuit the tactics will change slightly and it will become more about the individuals than the teams.

In some of the less cohesive sides we me see a few dodgy decisions made regarding principle riders – looking at you Italy and Spain 😉.

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Still, having a teammate on the finishing circuit will be a massive bonus, especially if you miss a killer attack and need someone to pull back the gap.

Spotting this killer attack is going to be crucial – just missing a pedal stroke...

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...or looking behind in the wrong direction and you could be left for dead, with no chance of getting back on.

Riders will need to be hyperfocussed throughout the race, a very tough task considering they’ll be in the saddle for over seven hours!

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Not many riders have the ability to get into this headspace, never mind match it with a monstrous amount of power.

But there are a few that can – these riders make up the favourites for tomorrow’s race.

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Again, I could go on forever talking about each one of these riders, so to avoid boring you all I’m going to rank them all and then pick a few individuals I’ve got my eyes on 👀

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⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️Sagan, Van der Poel
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️Gilbert, GVA, Trentin
⭐️⭐️⭐️Matthews, Wellens, Lutsenko, Alaphilippe
⭐️⭐️Bennett, Kristoff, Colbrelli
⭐️Stybar, Swift, Clarke, Cort, Valverde, Mohoric

Remember, my #PreviewTime, my picks, my rules...

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A lot of names there isn't there! And I'm going to throw some more into the mix right now - here are my outsiders...

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Pedersen
Cortina
Costa
Pogacar
Dillier
Neilands
Craddock

Some BIG longshots in there, who's following me down the rabbit hole?

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Righty, from all of those names I'm going to pick 4 to talk about:

First up, Pogacar.

Yep, you read that right. He's been smashing the KOMs around the Dales this week and looks to still be on mighty fine form. Plus he loves the wet. AVV-esque solo attack?

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Van der Poel.

Couldn't not mention the favourite, could I. Remember what I said about this course suiting a rider that can dig the deepest within themselves? Well, Van der Poel is that man. No weather or terrain will put him off tomorrow. He's the man to beat.

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Peter Sagan

He's not had the brightest season, but boy does he look to be coming good in the twilight months. This course suits him down to a tee. A lack of support is a double edged sword, no one will look to him to work before we arrive in Harrogate, but...

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...once we get to the finishing circuit and it comes down to mano a mano between a very elite selection of riders, he'll be lent on to do all the work - especially if he doesn't make the killer attack himself.

Attack sooner rather than later tomorrow, Peter.

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And the last of my FAB FOUR...

Matteo Trentin

I've had his name floating around my head all year. After his storming performance at the Tour, backed up by a string of solid results at the ToB he's now right back at the forefront of my mind.

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Just like Sagan, he's a dangerous in the sprint and on a solo attack. He's also a devil in the bad weather. Remember Glasgow 2018? He beat both MVDP and WVA that day - playing a tactical masterclass from start to finish.

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And I think it's about time I wrapped this one up and let you all get to bed!

So, my pick for tomorrow is...

You guessed it, Matteo Trentin.

I'm sticking with the guy I chose back in January. Who's joining me?

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And that's me done for the evening! Sorry if that got a little long near the end, but come on! It's the Worlds!

Now I did say earlier that this was my last #PreviewTime post of the year, but then I remembered there's the Autumnal classics. We'll see, we'll see...😉

I hope you all - whether you're watching from the roadside with me, or on the sofa at home - thoroughly enjoy tomorrow's race! It looks like it's going to be one for the history books.

With that, I bid you all farewell. It's been a blast. Cheers folks🍻.

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