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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Is it possible for the EU to agree to this version of the backstop without reopening the financial settlement?

Im not sure it is...

Purpose of the backstop is something that needs to be in place - legally and operationally - by end of transition. At the moment that’s Dec 2020
Creating two new borders - regulatory GB-NI and customs NI-ROI - takes time.

The customs border, clearance hubs, trusted trader schemes, business readiness etc - you can’t do them in 14 months.
You can’t agree to an insurance policy if you have no confidence it would be in place at the time you need it.
We can extend the transition for up to two years. But that requires negotiation and agreement (including the UK’s budget contributions during that time).

Given the EU want deal on fish before date to agree extension - no guarantees an extension would be mutually agreed
So looks impossible to agree a proposal like this with the default end of transition being Dec2020.

That means default date of transition end would need to be changed and extended.

And that means the two sides would need to agree what the UK would pay during that extension.
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More from @jl_owen see all

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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
A huge number of biggest Brexit issues come from it being seen too often as a political process rather than also a massive policy/practical one
Triggering Article 50 based on election timelines and polling, rather than preparation of positions and consequences of not getting a deal at the end

(True for both main parties)
Before that there was the setting of UK red lines - leaving CU and SM, no ECJ - without realising what it means for scope of options remaining.

(Whilst also looking for ‘frictionless trade’)
Read 8 tweets
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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
Last night @michaelgove did a last pre-prorogation evidence session on no deal preparations for the @LordsEUCom

Asked about the biggest no deal risks, he confirmed that there were EIGHT areas of most concern....
The eight areas cover - well - absolutely everything:

- Flow at border
- business readiness
- animals
- people
- security
- northern ireland
- economy
- data

As @Gilesyb pointed out the list doesn't cover the rest of the universe, but Galileo might make them reconsider
He said government would publish revised and up to date yellowhammer assumptions.

But alongside that they would publish the govts mitigation - so people could see what they had done.

Seemed to suggest those mitigations already baked into assumptions (so might be misleading?)
Read 12 tweets
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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
(As temporary distraction from standing orders and business motions)

Still surprising that the thing that is driving no deal (irish border) is the area where government seems furthest from having a remotely credible no deal plan (irish border)
The government's current no deal plan for Irish Border is basically this:

On a temporary basis it will do nothing - no checks, controls or customs.

But it has two massive problems:

1. It's temporary
2. It only fixes half of the issue - one side of border
The first issue is a problem because immediately means - what will replace it and when?

Well HMG seem to be working on broad assumption they've got about 12 months. After that they could get in trouble - not least with trading partners/WTO

In terms of what replaces it - a deal
Read 11 tweets

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Dave Keating
@DaveKeating
Breaking: UK asking EU to delay decision on #backstop until end of transition period in Dec 2020 - but still grant UK a deal for leaving EU on 31 October.

It's an absolute non-starter in Brussels. "It's like they haven't been listening for the last year" grumbles one EU official
The EU is insisting the UK give a concrete proposal for replacing the #backstop in next 12 days

In response, #Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said the UK wants the EU to agree to put off a decision on the backstop until Dec 2020 and give the UK a deal by 31 Oct in the mean time
Barclay also said in his speech in Madrid on Thursday that the UK cannot meet the deadline for coming up with a backstop alternative.

Confusingly, this is the opposite of what Boris Johnson has been insisting - that it is completely possible to find an alternative by October.
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
14. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?

#Hypocrites #DoubleStandards #Liars #Warlords #USRealTerrorists
Wrong US policies in the Middle East. Sanctions against Iran. Sanctions used by the USA as a war weapon🤨👇🏼
1. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world? 🤨👇🏼
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
#EU leaders issue five paragraph statement in long-shot bid to change 100+ minds in #UK Parliament "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership
with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately
after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as
soon as
possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to
prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It
is the Union’s firm determination to work
Read 7 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Getting the feeling that there's too much #brexit #backstop bravado and too little sense?

Howsabout a 4 slide summary from @DPhinnemore & me setting out what we can be pretty sure of and what the UK/EU (dis)agree on - as viewed from Northern Ireland.

1/5
1st: a lack of progress on the Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agmt.
All these colours have to turn green (i.e. agreed in principle & text) before we get that Deal for exit day next March.

Note that red circle - backstop is intended to be trumped at some point.
2/5
2nd: a summary of what is agreed on and what is still missing re: @BorderIrish and NI.
Note the extent of Northern Ireland-specific arrangements.

You've seen a version of this a couple of months ago. Not much progress here since you last saw it.

3/5
Read 6 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
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#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
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