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Katy Hayward @hayward_katy
, 6 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Getting the feeling that there's too much #brexit #backstop bravado and too little sense?

Howsabout a 4 slide summary from @DPhinnemore & me setting out what we can be pretty sure of and what the UK/EU (dis)agree on - as viewed from Northern Ireland.

1/5
1st: a lack of progress on the Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agmt.
All these colours have to turn green (i.e. agreed in principle & text) before we get that Deal for exit day next March.

Note that red circle - backstop is intended to be trumped at some point.
2/5
2nd: a summary of what is agreed on and what is still missing re: @BorderIrish and NI.
Note the extent of Northern Ireland-specific arrangements.

You've seen a version of this a couple of months ago. Not much progress here since you last saw it.

3/5
3rd: a summary of EU and UK positions re: the backstop
(with added pictures, because you deserve it)

This is laid out as simply as possible.
There is UK/EU common ground (and it is substantial) but the big concern is lack of text (& data?) specific to Protocol from UK side.
4/5
4th: Wouldn't it be nice to get a sense of the actual views of actual people in Northern Ireland on all this #BrexitBorder stuff?

Here's a very summary summary of some recent studies, minus hyperbole.
[And, it turns out, hyperlinks, so will post those below].

5/5
* @QUBelfast @UKandEU report on NI/Brexit qub.ac.uk/sites/brexitni…

* Ashcroft on Brexit, Border & Union
lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit…

* Polls & survey data on public opinion in NI inc. @ARK_info @LucidTalk @DeltapollUK

* @europe_icban Brexit at the Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
6/5!
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‘A Better Deal’?
bit.ly/2PCZh5S

If you are looking for a workable alternative to the Protocol on NI/IRL in the #WithdrawalAgreement, & if you are worried about @BorderIrish & @BelfastAgmt, I'm afraid this isn't it.

Here's a thread that is as tight as possible.
1/
First, don’t be fooled by the legalise & jargon.

It cannot be a serious legal text if it assumes that parties can simply “agree not to place physical infrastructure or introduce related checks and controls on the Irish border in any circumstances” (as per para 2).

2/
It is not in the gift of these parties to make such a guarantee without proper consideration of consequences for their international trade partners + responsibilities to their own consumers.

What this proposes in terms of 'Irish border measures' doesn't cut it (more anon.).
3/
Read 20 tweets
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Here we go: Very initial impressions of the #WithdrawalAgreement's Protocol on NI/IRL #backstop, drawing heavily on UK Explainer of the same. tinyurl.com/ydfrvcdc 1/8
First, some general points I think are worth noting, mainly about how the UK is trying to frame it & what has changed in the Preamble to the #Protocol.
2/8
To the #backstop, which is now about avoiding north/south AND east/west barriers... at least at face value.
UK keen to emphasise its temporary nature & unlikely implementation.
Initial decision on whether it comes into force will have to be made by 1 July 2020 & by the UK.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
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Barnier's speech today illustrates why no one will be happy with the final deal because, well, Brexit means *cough* Brexit.

UK outside EU means:
- checks where they don't currently exist.
- more admin to cross borders
- new barriers to movement.

1/5
 europa.eu/rapid/press-re…
Concessions will be on where the checks will be & who conducts them.

This is how EU proposes to de-dramatise possible customs checks between GB and NI.

2/5
This is EU dedramatising regulatory checks if NI in Single Market for goods and GB not.

Again, priority is not to have them *at* the Irish border.

3/5
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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The language around #Brexit is getting kinda squirrely. EU27 commentators, repeatedly answering the same questions, have become terse. The more aware UK ones are beginning to panic, and the less aware to awaken grumpily wondering why it isn't all sorted yet.
Some ppl are getting annoyed by the Irish position*, which they see as unreasonable, and are resorting to CAPSLOCK.

* the TEMERITY, how DARE they!
Others are scraping the bootom of the barrel looking for upsides. I like this one, which presumably reflects on the advantages of the depopulation of Britain.
Read 14 tweets
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I am proud to present #brexit RYMES thread or brexit for kids hope you all like them
Little blue peep tried to follow the sheep but they didn't know where they were going leave all alone to go it alone themselves off the Cliff theyl be throwing
Cam cam the Eton man buggered it up so away he ran under his arm he carried a porky pig with whom he liked to go Jiggety Jig #Brexit #brexitRYMES
Read 22 tweets
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Don’t know which Europeans Mr. Hannan is speaking to but I haven’t met anyone in Brussels or in EU capitals who is unhappy with the Commission approach & I’ve spoken to a lot of them. #Brexit
In addition, no-one in the #EU is threatening the UK (I wld challenge Hannan to point to one threat that has come from a leading EU politician or negotiator), nor are they stopping the UK from leaving. #Brexit
The EU have been clear from the start that there are many trade models available to the UK & the UK have ruled most of them out. If it feels like the UK has little room for manoeuvre it is because the government painted itself into a corner. #Brexit
Read 17 tweets
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It had always been government’s belief that if it cld speak to the Member States rather than the Commission it wld get a better #Brexit deal. The UK, they thought, could divide & rule. Jeremy Hunt’s comments have put an end to that. #Brexit
Comparing the #EU to the Soviet Union is the latest easily avoidable diplomatic error made by a cabinet minister. Hunt’s comments have lead to countries that used to be the UK’s best friends in the Council (like Estonia & Latvia) openly stating that he has insulted them. #Brexit
If the UK was to successfully divide & rule, it needed to keep its friends close. What it is doing is pushing them away. #Brexit
Read 10 tweets
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1. Time of a thread on this Toryboy dribble. The problem with a #Brexit FTA+++ ("with maximum recognition") is that the EU does not do mutual recognition where it has already has harmonised rules. it is never going to agree to an equivalence system. ...
2. Put simply if we go for an FTA+++ then the EU gets to decide the terms of those plusses. It can can look at maximum facilitation for revenue issues in relation to VAT and tariffs and technology can help but that pertains only to the customs union. The bits in red.
3. As you can see it doesn't even begin to address the issue of regulatory controls and though the EU does do MRAs on conformity assessment, they are never universal and only if there are exactly matched standards. The belief we can unilateral diverge is a fantasy.
Read 18 tweets
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Let's learn from history.

Back in 1989/90, the Community Charge was introduced by Margaret Thatcher in Scotland and then England and Wales. You probably remember it as the Poll Tax. Despite it being hugely unpopular, Maggie pressed ahead with the policy.
Maggie's argument was that the people had voted for the policy - after all, it had been in the Tory manifesto that had given her another landslide - so she had to deliver it and they could not change their minds.
There were protests and some of them were pretty violent. Maggie said that there was no way that she would back down from the policy. Meanwhile, Tory MPs were hearing the upset from ordinary voters in their constituencies.
Read 12 tweets

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