1) Trump's abrupt & indefensible concessions to Turkey seem to indicate Erdogan has some sort of leverage over him.
Speculation has centered on Trump's business ties, but I think Erdogan's leverage is more likely related to information about the Khashoggi assassination...
Speculation has centered on Trump's business ties, but I think Erdogan's leverage is more likely related to information about the Khashoggi assassination...
2) After the Khashoggi hit inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey essentially ran a long/deliberate information warfare campaign.
They had all the evidence from the get-go, but they strategically released nuggets to keep driving daily news & repeatedly expose Saudi lies.
They had all the evidence from the get-go, but they strategically released nuggets to keep driving daily news & repeatedly expose Saudi lies.
3) More & more details kept trickling out about the Khashoggi hit throughout October & November of 2018.
The White House & Saudis would repeatedly align their stories (“it was a rogue operation gone awry!”) – only to have those stories eviscerated by damning new revelations.
The White House & Saudis would repeatedly align their stories (“it was a rogue operation gone awry!”) – only to have those stories eviscerated by damning new revelations.
4) Throughout this process, keep in mind, Jared was advising MBS on how to handle his public relations campaign. The entire White House was bending over backwards to absolve Riyadh. Trump was denying the CIA’s conclusions.
And the admin was under growing bipartisan fire in DC.
And the admin was under growing bipartisan fire in DC.
5) Dec. 2018...
12/1: Trump has closed-door meeting w/Erdogan at G20
12/8: NYT reports Jared’s been advising MBS
12/13: Senate unanimously condemns MBS
12/14: in call on Syria, Trump tells Erdogan “Ok, it’s all yours.”
12/19: Trump announces withdrawal
12/20: Mattis resigns
12/1: Trump has closed-door meeting w/Erdogan at G20
12/8: NYT reports Jared’s been advising MBS
12/13: Senate unanimously condemns MBS
12/14: in call on Syria, Trump tells Erdogan “Ok, it’s all yours.”
12/19: Trump announces withdrawal
12/20: Mattis resigns
6) okay, now fast-forward....
9/27: CNN reports Trump had secret calls with MBS around the Khashoggi hit
9/29: Erdogan pens WaPo op-ed: “Turkey will continue its efforts to shed light on the Khashoggi murder”
10/6: after call w/Erdogan, Trump announces withdrawal from NE Syria
9/27: CNN reports Trump had secret calls with MBS around the Khashoggi hit
9/29: Erdogan pens WaPo op-ed: “Turkey will continue its efforts to shed light on the Khashoggi murder”
10/6: after call w/Erdogan, Trump announces withdrawal from NE Syria
7) Erdogan has played Trump repeatedly. He’s a shrewd, opportunistic politician who has proven he knows how to run an information warfare campaign.
He knows Trump is wounded & I’m sure he has damning evidence of how the WH handled the Khashoggi ordeal. That’s a LOT of leverage.
He knows Trump is wounded & I’m sure he has damning evidence of how the WH handled the Khashoggi ordeal. That’s a LOT of leverage.
8) Obviously, I have no definitive proof of what drove Trump’s latest abandonment of the Kurds –– this is a theory based on circumstantial evidence.
But given Trump’s willingness to compromise national security for personal political gain, I hope folks will explore it further.
But given Trump’s willingness to compromise national security for personal political gain, I hope folks will explore it further.
